West Virginia at Maryland Week 1 College Football Matchup West Virginia at Maryland Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Sep 4 2021 · Week 1 · 🏟 Maryland Stadium College Park, MD · Turf · 51,802 cap
West Virginia✈ 167 miSame TZ
24 30
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
West Virginia
24
MD +2.5
Maryland
31
P&R Line Maryland -7
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas West Virginia -2.5 · O/U 56.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
West Virginia -2.5
O/U 56.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Maryland · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
West Virginia 2021 Schedule
West Virginia's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4West Virginia at Maryland-2.5L24–3056.0L24–30UN
Sat 9/11West Virginia vs Long Island University-50.0W66–056.0W66–0OY
Sat 9/18West Virginia vs Virginia Tech-2.0W27–2149.5W27–21UY
Sat 9/25West Virginia at Oklahoma+17.5L13–1656.5L13–16UY
Sat 10/2West Virginia vs Texas Tech-7.5L20–2355.0L20–23UN
Sat 10/9West Virginia at Baylor+1.0L20–4545.0L20–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/23West Virginia at TCU+5.0W29–1758.0W29–17UY
Sat 10/30West Virginia vs Iowa State+7.5W38–3149.0W38–31OY
Sat 11/6West Virginia vs Oklahoma State+3.5L3–2448.5L3–24UN
Sat 11/13West Virginia at Kansas State+6.0L17–3447.5L17–34ON
Sat 11/20West Virginia vs Texas-2.5W31–2356.0W31–23UY
Sat 11/27West Virginia at Kansas-15.5W34–2855.5W34–28ON
Tue 12/28West Virginia vs Minnesota+5.0L6–1844.5L6–18UN
Maryland 2021 Schedule
Maryland's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Maryland vs West Virginia+2.5W30–2456.0W30–24UY
Sat 9/11Maryland vs Howard-48.5W62–056.0W62–0OY
Fri 9/17Maryland at Illinois-7.0W20–1761.5W20–17UN
Sat 9/25Maryland vs Kent State-13.0W37–1671.5W37–16UY
Fri 10/1Maryland vs Iowa+3.0L14–5147.5L14–51ON
Sat 10/9Maryland at Ohio State+22.0L17–6671.5L17–66ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/23Maryland at Minnesota+4.0L16–3453.0L16–34UN
Sat 10/30Maryland vs Indiana-3.5W38–3548.0W38–35ON
Sat 11/6Maryland vs Penn State+10.0L14–3156.5L14–31UN
Sat 11/13Maryland at Michigan State+11.5L21–4060.0L21–40ON
Sat 11/20Maryland vs Michigan+16.0L18–5958.5L18–59ON
Sat 11/27Maryland at Rutgers+2.0W40–1653.0W40–16OY
Wed 12/29Maryland vs Virginia Tech-4.0W54–1055.0W54–10OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Maryland PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Maryland
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
West Virginia
+0.411
Maryland
+0.442
Maryland Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
West Virginia
+0.542
Maryland
+0.642
Maryland Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
West Virginia
0.162
Maryland
0.143
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
West Virginia Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
West Virginia
+8.006
Maryland
+6.981
West Virginia Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
West Virginia
+0.869
Maryland
+0.911
Maryland Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
West Virginia
72.9
Maryland
72.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Maryland Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Maryland Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
West Virginia
1.2
Maryland
4.5
Offense Rating
West Virginia
17.8
Maryland
17.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
West Virginia
16.6
Maryland
13.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? West Virginia Edge
Avg sequences created per game
West Virginia #65
0.00
Maryland #90
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
West Virginia #26
0.00
Maryland #126
0.00
West Virginia +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? West Virginia Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
West Virginia #1
0.0
Maryland #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
West Virginia #78
0.0
Maryland #85
0.0
West Virginia +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Maryland
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
West Virginia
33.6 — 35.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Maryland won by 6
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Maryland, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
13–12 (52%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Gerad Parker Yr 1 #1
DC ShaDon Brown Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Maryland
Mike Locksley #1
9–17 (35%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Dan Enos Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Williams Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself