Matchup Prediction
Texas
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Texas entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Texas wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Texas wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas -3.5
O/U 65.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Texas 2021 Schedule
Texas's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Texas vs Louisiana | -8.5W38–18 | 58.0 | W38–18 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Texas at Arkansas | -6.0L21–40 | 57.5 | L21–40 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Texas vs Rice | -26.0W58–0 | 52.0 | W58–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Texas vs Texas Tech | -9.0W70–35 | 63.0 | W70–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Texas at TCU | -3.5W32–27 | 65.5 | W32–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Texas vs Oklahoma | +4.0L48–55 | 65.5 | L48–55 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Texas vs Oklahoma State | -3.0L24–32 | 61.0 | L24–32 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Texas at Baylor | +2.0L24–31 | 61.5 | L24–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Texas at Iowa State | +6.0L7–30 | 59.5 | L7–30 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Texas vs Kansas | -31.0L56–57 | 61.5 | L56–57 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Texas at West Virginia | +2.5L23–31 | 56.0 | L23–31 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | Texas vs Kansas State | -3.0W22–17 | 54.5 | W22–17 | U | Y |
TCU 2021 Schedule
TCU's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | TCU vs Duquesne | -42.0W45–3 | 54.5 | W45–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | TCU vs California | -11.5W34–32 | 46.5 | W34–32 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/25 | TCU vs SMU | -8.0L34–42 | 66.0 | L34–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | TCU vs Texas | +3.5L27–32 | 65.5 | L27–32 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | TCU at Texas Tech | -2.5W52–31 | 60.0 | W52–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | TCU at Oklahoma | +12.5L31–52 | 64.5 | L31–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | TCU vs West Virginia | -5.0L17–29 | 58.0 | L17–29 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | TCU at Kansas State | +3.5L12–31 | 58.5 | L12–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | TCU vs Baylor | +7.5W30–28 | 57.0 | W30–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | TCU at Oklahoma State | +11.0L17–63 | 53.5 | L17–63 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | TCU vs Kansas | -21.0W31–28 | 64.0 | W31–28 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | TCU at Iowa State | +16.0L14–48 | 61.5 | L14–48 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Texas Edge
Texas +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Texas Edge
Texas +15.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Texas with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Texas
Steve Sarkisian #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Kyle Flood
Yr 1
#1
DC
Pete Kwiatkowski
Yr 1
#1
TCU
Gary Patterson #1
180–74 (71%)
· Yr 22 at school
OC
Doug Meacham
Yr 1
#1
DC
Chad Glasgow
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓