Sat, Dec 4 2021
·
Week 14
·
🏟 Nippert Stadium
Cincinnati, OH
·
Turf
·
40,000 cap
Houston✈ 895 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Cincinnati
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Cincinnati entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Cincinnati wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Cincinnati wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Cincinnati -10.5
O/U 52.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Cincinnati
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Houston 2021 Schedule
Houston's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Houston vs Texas Tech | -2.5L21–38 | 63.0 | L21–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Houston at Rice | -7.5W44–7 | 50.0 | W44–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Houston vs Grambling | -41.0W45–0 | 51.5 | W45–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Houston vs Navy | -20.0W28–20 | 47.0 | W28–20 | O | N |
| Fri 10/1 | Houston at Tulsa | +3.0W45–10 | 54.0 | W45–10 | O | Y |
| Thu 10/7 | Houston at Tulane | -6.5W40–22 | 60.0 | W40–22 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Houston vs East Carolina | -13.5W31–24 | 56.0 | W31–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Houston vs SMU | +1.0W44–37 | 61.5 | W44–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Houston at South Florida | -13.5W54–42 | 53.0 | W54–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Houston at Temple | -26.0W37–8 | 52.5 | W37–8 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/19 | Houston vs Memphis | -9.0W31–13 | 59.5 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Houston at UConn | -32.0W45–17 | 54.5 | W45–17 | O | N |
| Sat 12/4 | Houston at Cincinnati | +10.5L20–35 | 52.5 | L20–35 | O | N |
| Tue 12/28 | Houston vs Auburn | +2.0W17–13 | 51.5 | W17–13 | U | Y |
Cincinnati 2021 Schedule
Cincinnati's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Cincinnati vs Miami (OH) | -22.5W49–14 | 49.0 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Cincinnati vs Murray State | -36.5W42–7 | 51.5 | W42–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Cincinnati at Indiana | -4.0W38–24 | 50.0 | W38–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/2 | Cincinnati at Notre Dame | -2.5W24–13 | 50.0 | W24–13 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/8 | Cincinnati vs Temple | -30.0W52–3 | 52.5 | W52–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Cincinnati vs UCF | -21.5W56–21 | 56.0 | W56–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Cincinnati at Navy | -28.5W27–20 | 49.5 | W27–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Cincinnati at Tulane | -27.5W31–12 | 61.5 | W31–12 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Cincinnati vs Tulsa | -22.5W28–20 | 56.0 | W28–20 | U | N |
| Fri 11/12 | Cincinnati at South Florida | -24.5W45–28 | 58.5 | W45–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Cincinnati vs SMU | -9.5W48–14 | 65.5 | W48–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | Cincinnati at East Carolina | -14.5W35–13 | 56.5 | W35–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/4 | Cincinnati vs Houston | -10.5W35–20 | 52.5 | W35–20 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/31 | Cincinnati vs Alabama | +13.0L6–27 | 57.5 | L6–27 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Cincinnati
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Cincinnati Edge
Cincinnati +0.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Cincinnati Edge
Cincinnati +6.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Cincinnati
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Cincinnati
85.7 — 7.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Cincinnati won by 15
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Cincinnati. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Houston
Dana Holgorsen #1
9–14 (39%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Shannon Dawson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Doug Belk
Yr 1
#1
Cincinnati
Luke Fickell #1
38–14 (73%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Mike Denbrock
Yr 1
#1
DC
Mike Tressel
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓