Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Houston,
while Game Control favors SMU.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Houston wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
SMU wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
SMU -1
O/U 61.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Houston
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
SMU 2021 Schedule
SMU's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | SMU vs Abilene Christian | -32.0W56–9 | 66.0 | W56–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | SMU vs North Texas | -22.5W35–12 | 75.5 | W35–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | SMU at Louisiana Tech | -11.0W39–37 | 65.0 | W39–37 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | SMU at TCU | +8.0W42–34 | 66.0 | W42–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | SMU vs South Florida | -21.5W41–17 | 68.5 | W41–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | SMU at Navy | -13.5W31–24 | 57.0 | W31–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/21 | SMU vs Tulane | -14.0W55–26 | 70.5 | W55–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | SMU at Houston | -1.0L37–44 | 61.5 | L37–44 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | SMU at Memphis | -3.5L25–28 | 72.0 | L25–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | SMU vs UCF | -7.0W55–28 | 61.5 | W55–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | SMU at Cincinnati | +9.5L14–48 | 65.5 | L14–48 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | SMU vs Tulsa | -6.0L31–34 | 63.0 | L31–34 | O | N |
| Wed 12/29 | SMU vs Virginia | +2.5 | 71.0 | — | — | — |
Houston 2021 Schedule
Houston's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Houston vs Texas Tech | -2.5L21–38 | 63.0 | L21–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Houston at Rice | -7.5W44–7 | 50.0 | W44–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Houston vs Grambling | -41.0W45–0 | 51.5 | W45–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Houston vs Navy | -20.0W28–20 | 47.0 | W28–20 | O | N |
| Fri 10/1 | Houston at Tulsa | +3.0W45–10 | 54.0 | W45–10 | O | Y |
| Thu 10/7 | Houston at Tulane | -6.5W40–22 | 60.0 | W40–22 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Houston vs East Carolina | -13.5W31–24 | 56.0 | W31–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Houston vs SMU | +1.0W44–37 | 61.5 | W44–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Houston at South Florida | -13.5W54–42 | 53.0 | W54–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Houston at Temple | -26.0W37–8 | 52.5 | W37–8 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/19 | Houston vs Memphis | -9.0W31–13 | 59.5 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Houston at UConn | -32.0W45–17 | 54.5 | W45–17 | O | N |
| Sat 12/4 | Houston at Cincinnati | +10.5L20–35 | 52.5 | L20–35 | O | N |
| Tue 12/28 | Houston vs Auburn | +2.0W17–13 | 51.5 | W17–13 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Houston
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Houston Edge
Houston +0.29
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
SMU Edge
SMU +3.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Houston
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Houston
56.7 — 21.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Houston won by 7
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
SMU
Sonny Dykes #1
25–14 (64%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Garrett Riley
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jim Leavitt
Yr 1
#1
Houston
Dana Holgorsen #1
9–14 (39%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Shannon Dawson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Doug Belk
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓