East Carolina at Houston Week 8 College Football Matchup East Carolina at Houston Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 23 2021 · Week 8 · 🏟 John O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium Houston, TX · Turf · 40,000 cap
East Carolina✈ 1,120 mi-1 hr TZ
24 31
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
East Carolina
22
Houston
35
P&R Line Houston -13
P&R Total O/U 56.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Houston -13.5 · O/U 56.0
Matchup Prediction
Houston has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Houston entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Houston wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Houston wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Houston -13.5
O/U 56.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Houston · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Houston Coming off BYE 🛋 East Carolina Coming off BYE
East Carolina 2021 Schedule
East Carolina's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2East Carolina at App State+9.0L19–3355.5L19–33UN
Sat 9/11East Carolina vs South Carolina+3.0L17–2056.5L17–20UY
Sat 9/18East Carolina at Marshall+11.0W42–3858.5W42–38OY
Sat 9/25East Carolina vs Charleston Southern-24.5W31–2859.0W31–28UN
Sat 10/2East Carolina vs Tulane+3.0W52–2965.0W52–29OY
Sat 10/9East Carolina at UCF+10.0L16–2065.0L16–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/23East Carolina at Houston+13.5L24–3156.0L24–31UY
Thu 10/28East Carolina vs South Florida-9.5W29–1455.5W29–14UY
Sat 11/6East Carolina vs Temple-15.5W45–352.0W45–3UY
Sat 11/13East Carolina at Memphis+4.0W30–2958.5W30–29OY
Sat 11/20East Carolina at Navy-3.5W38–3546.0W38–35ON
Fri 11/26East Carolina vs Cincinnati+14.5L13–3556.5L13–35UN
Mon 12/27East Carolina vs Boston College+3.052.5
Houston 2021 Schedule
Houston's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Houston vs Texas Tech-2.5L21–3863.0L21–38UN
Sat 9/11Houston at Rice-7.5W44–750.0W44–7OY
Sat 9/18Houston vs Grambling-41.0W45–051.5W45–0UY
Sat 9/25Houston vs Navy-20.0W28–2047.0W28–20ON
Fri 10/1Houston at Tulsa+3.0W45–1054.0W45–10OY
Thu 10/7Houston at Tulane-6.5W40–2260.0W40–22OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/23Houston vs East Carolina-13.5W31–2456.0W31–24UN
Sat 10/30Houston vs SMU+1.0W44–3761.5W44–37OY
Sat 11/6Houston at South Florida-13.5W54–4253.0W54–42ON
Sat 11/13Houston at Temple-26.0W37–852.5W37–8UY
Fri 11/19Houston vs Memphis-9.0W31–1359.5W31–13UY
Sat 11/27Houston at UConn-32.0W45–1754.5W45–17ON
Sat 12/4Houston at Cincinnati+10.5L20–3552.5L20–35ON
Tue 12/28Houston vs Auburn+2.0W17–1351.5W17–13UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Houston PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Houston
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Houston
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Houston
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
East Carolina
+0.250
Houston
+0.442
Houston Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina
+0.337
Houston
+0.588
Houston Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
East Carolina
0.186
Houston
0.214
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Houston Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina
+7.004
Houston
+8.143
Houston Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
East Carolina
+0.757
Houston
+0.832
Houston Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
East Carolina
70.5
Houston
66.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Houston Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Houston Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
East Carolina
1.4
Houston
8.3
Offense Rating
East Carolina
15.8
Houston
19.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
East Carolina
14.4
Houston
11.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Houston Edge
Avg sequences created per game
East Carolina #26
1.67
Houston #28
2.20
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #82
1.33
Houston #67
0.60
Houston +0.53
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Houston Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
East Carolina #1
45.1
Houston #1
76.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #65
41.0
Houston #9
12.3
Houston +31.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Houston
74.9 — 8.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Houston won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Houston with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
East Carolina
Mike Houston #1
8–16 (33%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Donnie Kirkpatrick Yr 1 #1
DC Blake Harrell Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Houston
Dana Holgorsen #1
9–14 (39%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Shannon Dawson Yr 1 #1
DC Doug Belk Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself