Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Houston wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Houston -7.5
O/U 50.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Houston
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Houston 2021 Schedule
Houston's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Houston vs Texas Tech | -2.5L21–38 | 63.0 | L21–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Houston at Rice | -7.5W44–7 | 50.0 | W44–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Houston vs Grambling | -41.0W45–0 | 51.5 | W45–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Houston vs Navy | -20.0W28–20 | 47.0 | W28–20 | O | N |
| Fri 10/1 | Houston at Tulsa | +3.0W45–10 | 54.0 | W45–10 | O | Y |
| Thu 10/7 | Houston at Tulane | -6.5W40–22 | 60.0 | W40–22 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Houston vs East Carolina | -13.5W31–24 | 56.0 | W31–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Houston vs SMU | +1.0W44–37 | 61.5 | W44–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Houston at South Florida | -13.5W54–42 | 53.0 | W54–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Houston at Temple | -26.0W37–8 | 52.5 | W37–8 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/19 | Houston vs Memphis | -9.0W31–13 | 59.5 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Houston at UConn | -32.0W45–17 | 54.5 | W45–17 | O | N |
| Sat 12/4 | Houston at Cincinnati | +10.5L20–35 | 52.5 | L20–35 | O | N |
| Tue 12/28 | Houston vs Auburn | +2.0W17–13 | 51.5 | W17–13 | U | Y |
Rice 2021 Schedule
Rice's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Rice at Arkansas | +19.5L17–38 | 50.0 | L17–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Rice vs Houston | +7.5L7–44 | 50.0 | L7–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Rice at Texas | +26.0L0–58 | 52.0 | L0–58 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Rice vs Texas Southern | -37.0W48–34 | 53.5 | W48–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Rice vs Southern Miss | -1.5W24–19 | 45.0 | W24–19 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Rice at UTSA | +17.0L0–45 | 53.0 | L0–45 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Rice at UAB | +23.5W30–24 | 44.5 | W30–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Rice vs North Texas | -1.5L24–30 | 55.0 | L24–30 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Rice at Charlotte | +6.5L24–31 | 51.5 | L24–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Rice vs Western Kentucky | +19.0L21–42 | 61.0 | L21–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Rice at UTEP | +9.0L28–38 | 47.0 | L28–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Rice vs Louisiana Tech | +3.5W35–31 | 52.5 | W35–31 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Houston
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Houston
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Houston
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Houston +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Houston Edge
Houston +47.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Houston
Dana Holgorsen #1
9–14 (39%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Shannon Dawson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Doug Belk
Yr 1
#1
Rice
Mike Bloomgren #1
7–26 (21%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Marques Tuiasosopo
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brian Smith
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓