Central Michigan at Western Michigan Week 10 College Football Matchup Central Michigan at Western Michigan Matchup - Week 10
Wed, Nov 3 2021 · Week 10 · 🏟 Waldo Stadium Kalamazoo, MI · Turf · 30,200 cap
Central Michigan✈ 98 miSame TZ
42 30
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Central Michigan
29
CMU +9
Western Michigan
33
P&R Line Western Michigan -4
P&R Total O/U 62
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Western Michigan -9 · O/U 64.5
Matchup Prediction
Western Michigan has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Western Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Western Michigan wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Western Michigan wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Western Michigan -9
O/U 64.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Western Michigan · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Western Michigan Coming off BYE 🛋 Central Michigan Coming off BYE
Central Michigan 2021 Schedule
Central Michigan's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Central Michigan at Missouri+13.5L24–3459.0L24–34UY
Sat 9/11Central Michigan vs Robert Morris-37.5W45–053.5W45–0UY
Sat 9/18Central Michigan at LSU+19.5L21–4961.0L21–49ON
Sat 9/25Central Michigan vs Florida International-12.0W31–2755.0W31–27ON
Sat 10/2Central Michigan at Miami (OH)-2.5L17–2856.5L17–28UN
Sat 10/9Central Michigan at Ohio-5.0W30–2758.0W30–27UN
Sat 10/16Central Michigan vs Toledo+5.0W26–2353.0W26–23UY
Sat 10/23Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois-6.0L38–3956.0L38–39ON
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/3Central Michigan at Western Michigan+9.0W42–3064.5W42–30OY
Wed 11/10Central Michigan vs Kent State-2.5W54–3076.5W54–30OY
Wed 11/17Central Michigan at Ball State-2.5W37–1757.0W37–17UY
Fri 11/26Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan-8.5W31–1064.0W31–10UY
Fri 12/31Central Michigan vs Washington State+5.5W24–2156.0W24–21UY
Fri 12/31Central Michigan vs Boise State+7.555.5
Western Michigan 2021 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Western Michigan at Michigan+16.5L14–4765.5L14–47UN
Sat 9/11Western Michigan vs Illinois State-12.5W28–056.5W28–0UY
Sat 9/18Western Michigan at Pittsburgh+14.0W44–4159.0W44–41OY
Sat 9/25Western Michigan vs San José State-2.5W23–361.5W23–3UY
Sat 10/2Western Michigan at Buffalo-7.0W24–1759.5W24–17UN
Sat 10/9Western Michigan vs Ball State-13.0L20–4557.5L20–45ON
Sat 10/16Western Michigan vs Kent State-7.0W64–3168.5W64–31OY
Sat 10/23Western Michigan at Toledo-1.5L15–3454.5L15–34UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/3Western Michigan vs Central Michigan-9.0L30–4264.5L30–42ON
Tue 11/9Western Michigan vs Akron-24.5W45–4062.0W45–40ON
Tue 11/16Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan-6.0L21–2266.0L21–22UN
Tue 11/23Western Michigan at Northern Illinois-6.5W42–2160.0W42–21OY
Mon 12/27Western Michigan vs Nevada-7.0W52–2456.0W52–24OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Western Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Western Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Central Michigan
+0.456
Western Michigan
+0.497
Western Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Central Michigan
+0.636
Western Michigan
+0.682
Western Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Central Michigan
0.216
Western Michigan
0.219
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Western Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Central Michigan
+7.371
Western Michigan
+8.117
Western Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Central Michigan
+0.826
Western Michigan
+0.912
Western Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Central Michigan
68.3
Western Michigan
71.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Central Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Central Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Central Michigan
-4.9
Western Michigan
-5.6
Offense Rating
Central Michigan
15.1
Western Michigan
14.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Central Michigan
20.0
Western Michigan
20.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Western Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Central Michigan #77
0.63
Western Michigan #12
1.86
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Central Michigan #69
1.25
Western Michigan #73
0.86
Western Michigan +1.23
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Western Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Central Michigan #1
46.5
Western Michigan #1
53.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Central Michigan #46
40.9
Western Michigan #28
32.5
Western Michigan +6.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Western Michigan. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Central Michigan
Jim McElwain #1
12–11 (52%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Kevin Barbay Yr 1 #1
DC Robb Akey Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Western Michigan
Tim Lester #1
26–21 (55%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Mike Bath Yr 1 #1
DC Lou Esposito Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself