Sat, Oct 16 2021
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Waldo Stadium
Kalamazoo, MI
·
Turf
·
30,200 cap
Kent State✈ 234 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Western Michigan
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Western Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Western Michigan wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Western Michigan wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Western Michigan -7
O/U 68.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Western Michigan
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kent State 2021 Schedule
Kent State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Kent State at Texas A&M | +29.5L10–41 | 67.0 | L10–41 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Kent State vs VMI | -19.0W60–10 | 73.0 | W60–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Kent State at Iowa | +22.0L7–30 | 55.5 | L7–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Kent State at Maryland | +13.0L16–37 | 71.5 | L16–37 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Kent State vs Bowling Green | -16.5W27–20 | 56.0 | W27–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Kent State vs Buffalo | -7.0W48–38 | 66.0 | W48–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Kent State at Western Michigan | +7.0L31–64 | 68.5 | L31–64 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Kent State at Ohio | -5.0W34–27 | 68.5 | W34–27 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/3 | Kent State vs Northern Illinois | -3.5W52–47 | 72.0 | W52–47 | O | Y |
| Wed 11/10 | Kent State at Central Michigan | +2.5L30–54 | 76.5 | L30–54 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Kent State at Akron | -13.5W38–0 | 72.5 | W38–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Kent State vs Miami (OH) | +1.0W48–47 | 68.0 | W48–47 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/4 | Kent State vs Northern Illinois | -3.5L23–41 | 75.5 | L23–41 | U | N |
| Tue 12/21 | Kent State vs Wyoming | +3.0L38–52 | 61.0 | L38–52 | O | N |
Western Michigan 2021 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Western Michigan at Michigan | +16.5L14–47 | 65.5 | L14–47 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Western Michigan vs Illinois State | -12.5W28–0 | 56.5 | W28–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Western Michigan at Pittsburgh | +14.0W44–41 | 59.0 | W44–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Western Michigan vs San José State | -2.5W23–3 | 61.5 | W23–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Western Michigan at Buffalo | -7.0W24–17 | 59.5 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Western Michigan vs Ball State | -13.0L20–45 | 57.5 | L20–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Western Michigan vs Kent State | -7.0W64–31 | 68.5 | W64–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Western Michigan at Toledo | -1.5L15–34 | 54.5 | L15–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/3 | Western Michigan vs Central Michigan | -9.0L30–42 | 64.5 | L30–42 | O | N |
| Tue 11/9 | Western Michigan vs Akron | -24.5W45–40 | 62.0 | W45–40 | O | N |
| Tue 11/16 | Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan | -6.0L21–22 | 66.0 | L21–22 | U | N |
| Tue 11/23 | Western Michigan at Northern Illinois | -6.5W42–21 | 60.0 | W42–21 | O | Y |
| Mon 12/27 | Western Michigan vs Nevada | -7.0W52–24 | 56.0 | W52–24 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Western Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Western Michigan Edge
Western Michigan +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Western Michigan Edge
Western Michigan +8.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Western Michigan
5 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Western Michigan
93.1 — 4.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Western Michigan won by 33
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Western Michigan. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Kent State
Sean Lewis #1
13–19 (41%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Andrew Sowder
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tom Kaufman
Yr 1
#1
Western Michigan
Tim Lester #1
26–21 (55%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Mike Bath
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lou Esposito
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓