Sat, Oct 2 2021
·
Week 5
·
🏟 UB Stadium
Amherst, NY
·
Turf
·
29,013 cap
Western Michigan✈ 350 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Western Michigan
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Western Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Western Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Western Michigan wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Western Michigan -7
O/U 59.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Western Michigan
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Western Michigan 2021 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Western Michigan at Michigan | +16.5L14–47 | 65.5 | L14–47 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Western Michigan vs Illinois State | -12.5W28–0 | 56.5 | W28–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Western Michigan at Pittsburgh | +14.0W44–41 | 59.0 | W44–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Western Michigan vs San José State | -2.5W23–3 | 61.5 | W23–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Western Michigan at Buffalo | -7.0W24–17 | 59.5 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Western Michigan vs Ball State | -13.0L20–45 | 57.5 | L20–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Western Michigan vs Kent State | -7.0W64–31 | 68.5 | W64–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Western Michigan at Toledo | -1.5L15–34 | 54.5 | L15–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/3 | Western Michigan vs Central Michigan | -9.0L30–42 | 64.5 | L30–42 | O | N |
| Tue 11/9 | Western Michigan vs Akron | -24.5W45–40 | 62.0 | W45–40 | O | N |
| Tue 11/16 | Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan | -6.0L21–22 | 66.0 | L21–22 | U | N |
| Tue 11/23 | Western Michigan at Northern Illinois | -6.5W42–21 | 60.0 | W42–21 | O | Y |
| Mon 12/27 | Western Michigan vs Nevada | -7.0W52–24 | 56.0 | W52–24 | O | Y |
Buffalo 2021 Schedule
Buffalo's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Buffalo vs Wagner | -44.0W69–7 | 54.5 | W69–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Buffalo at Nebraska | +13.5L3–28 | 54.0 | L3–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Buffalo vs Coastal Carolina | +14.0L25–28 | 58.0 | L25–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Buffalo at Old Dominion | -13.0W35–34 | 50.5 | W35–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Buffalo vs Western Michigan | +7.0L17–24 | 59.5 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Buffalo at Kent State | +7.0L38–48 | 66.0 | L38–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Buffalo vs Ohio | -7.5W27–26 | 54.5 | W27–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Buffalo at Akron | -13.5W45–10 | 58.5 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Buffalo vs Bowling Green | -13.5L44–56 | 51.5 | L44–56 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/9 | Buffalo at Miami (OH) | +7.0L18–45 | 58.0 | L18–45 | O | N |
| Wed 11/17 | Buffalo vs Northern Illinois | +2.0L27–33 | 59.5 | L27–33 | O | N |
| Tue 11/23 | Buffalo at Ball State | +6.0L3–20 | 59.5 | L3–20 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Western Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Western Michigan Edge
Western Michigan +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Western Michigan Edge
Western Michigan +1.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Western Michigan, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Western Michigan
Tim Lester #1
26–21 (55%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Mike Bath
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lou Esposito
Yr 1
#1
Buffalo
Maurice Linguist #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Shane Montgomery
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Cauthen
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓