Ball State at Western Michigan Week 6 College Football Matchup Ball State at Western Michigan Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 9 2021 · Week 6 · 🏟 Waldo Stadium Kalamazoo, MI · Turf · 30,200 cap
Ball State✈ 143 miSame TZ
45 20
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Ball State
22
Western Michigan
36
P&R Line Western Michigan -14.5
P&R Total O/U 58
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Western Michigan -13 · O/U 57.5
Matchup Prediction
Western Michigan has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Western Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Western Michigan wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Western Michigan wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Western Michigan -13
O/U 57.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Western Michigan · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Ball State 2021 Schedule
Ball State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2Ball State vs Western Illinois-31.0W31–2158.5W31–21UN
Sat 9/11Ball State at Penn State+23.0L13–4458.0L13–44UN
Sat 9/18Ball State at Wyoming+6.5L12–4553.5L12–45ON
Sat 9/25Ball State vs Toledo+4.5L12–2256.5L12–22UN
Sat 10/2Ball State vs Army+10.5W28–1646.5W28–16UY
Sat 10/9Ball State at Western Michigan+13.0W45–2057.5W45–20OY
Sat 10/16Ball State at Eastern Michigan-1.5W38–3154.5W38–31OY
Sat 10/23Ball State vs Miami (OH)-3.5L17–2453.0L17–24UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/2Ball State at Akron-20.0W31–2558.0W31–25UN
Wed 11/10Ball State at Northern Illinois-3.0L29–3059.5L29–30UN
Wed 11/17Ball State vs Central Michigan+2.5L17–3757.0L17–37UN
Tue 11/23Ball State vs Buffalo-6.0W20–359.5W20–3UY
Sat 12/25Ball State vs Georgia State+6.0L20–5152.5L20–51ON
Western Michigan 2021 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Western Michigan at Michigan+16.5L14–4765.5L14–47UN
Sat 9/11Western Michigan vs Illinois State-12.5W28–056.5W28–0UY
Sat 9/18Western Michigan at Pittsburgh+14.0W44–4159.0W44–41OY
Sat 9/25Western Michigan vs San José State-2.5W23–361.5W23–3UY
Sat 10/2Western Michigan at Buffalo-7.0W24–1759.5W24–17UN
Sat 10/9Western Michigan vs Ball State-13.0L20–4557.5L20–45ON
Sat 10/16Western Michigan vs Kent State-7.0W64–3168.5W64–31OY
Sat 10/23Western Michigan at Toledo-1.5L15–3454.5L15–34UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/3Western Michigan vs Central Michigan-9.0L30–4264.5L30–42ON
Tue 11/9Western Michigan vs Akron-24.5W45–4062.0W45–40ON
Tue 11/16Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan-6.0L21–2266.0L21–22UN
Tue 11/23Western Michigan at Northern Illinois-6.5W42–2160.0W42–21OY
Mon 12/27Western Michigan vs Nevada-7.0W52–2456.0W52–24OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Western Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Western Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Ball State
+0.341
Western Michigan
+0.558
Western Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Ball State
+0.369
Western Michigan
+0.796
Western Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Ball State
0.132
Western Michigan
0.219
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Western Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Ball State
+7.400
Western Michigan
+8.087
Western Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Ball State
+0.794
Western Michigan
+0.993
Western Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Ball State
69.5
Western Michigan
71.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Ball State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Western Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Ball State
-21.6
Western Michigan
-5.3
Offense Rating
Ball State
5.9
Western Michigan
14.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Ball State
27.5
Western Michigan
19.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Western Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Ball State #85
0.50
Western Michigan #12
1.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Ball State #45
1.00
Western Michigan #73
1.00
Western Michigan +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Western Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Ball State #1
36.3
Western Michigan #1
52.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Ball State #70
57.1
Western Michigan #28
33.1
Western Michigan +16.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ball State
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Western Michigan
51.3 — 35.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Ball State won by 25
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Western Michigan with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
23–36 (39%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Kevin Lynch Yr 1 #1
DC Tyler Stockton Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Western Michigan
Tim Lester #1
26–21 (55%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Mike Bath Yr 1 #1
DC Lou Esposito Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself