Sat, Oct 30 2021
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Williams Stadium
Lynchburg, VA
·
Turf
·
19,200 cap
Massachusetts✈ 494 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Liberty
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Liberty entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Liberty wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Liberty wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Liberty -35.5
O/U 56.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Liberty
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Massachusetts 2021 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Massachusetts at Pittsburgh | +38.0L7–51 | 56.0 | L7–51 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Massachusetts vs Boston College | +39.0L28–45 | 57.0 | L28–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan | +22.0L28–42 | 56.5 | L28–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Massachusetts at Coastal Carolina | +36.0L3–53 | 66.0 | L3–53 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Massachusetts vs Toledo | +26.5L7–45 | 56.5 | L7–45 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Massachusetts vs UConn | +3.0W27–13 | 57.0 | W27–13 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Massachusetts at Florida State | +35.0L3–59 | 59.0 | L3–59 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Massachusetts at Liberty | +35.5L17–62 | 56.0 | L17–62 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Massachusetts vs Rhode Island | -2.5L22–35 | 55.5 | L22–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Massachusetts vs Maine | +6.0L10–35 | 58.5 | L10–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Massachusetts at Army | +37.5L17–33 | 56.0 | L17–33 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Massachusetts at New Mexico State | +7.0L27–44 | 58.5 | L27–44 | O | N |
Liberty 2021 Schedule
Liberty's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Liberty vs Campbell | -35.0W48–7 | 65.0 | W48–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Liberty at Troy | -3.0W21–13 | 62.5 | W21–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Liberty vs Old Dominion | -26.5W45–17 | 53.5 | W45–17 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/24 | Liberty at Syracuse | -6.5L21–24 | 54.0 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Liberty at UAB | +3.0W36–12 | 49.0 | W36–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Liberty vs Middle Tennessee | -20.0W41–13 | 59.0 | W41–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Liberty at UL Monroe | -32.5L28–31 | 57.0 | L28–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Liberty at North Texas | -21.0W35–26 | 61.0 | W35–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Liberty vs Massachusetts | -35.5W62–17 | 56.0 | W62–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Liberty at Ole Miss | +7.5L14–27 | 66.5 | L14–27 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/20 | Liberty vs Louisiana | -4.0L14–42 | 53.5 | L14–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Liberty vs Army | -3.0L16–31 | 51.5 | L16–31 | U | N |
| Sat 12/18 | Liberty vs Eastern Michigan | -9.5W56–20 | 58.5 | W56–20 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Liberty
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Liberty
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Liberty
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Liberty Edge
Liberty +1.11
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Liberty Edge
Liberty +64.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Liberty
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Liberty
99.7 — 0.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Liberty won by 45
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Liberty with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Massachusetts
Walt Bell #1
1–18 (5%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Angelo Mirando
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tommy Restivo
Yr 1
#1
Liberty
Hugh Freeze #1
21–6 (78%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Kent Austin
Yr 1
#1
DC
Scott Symons
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓