Sat, Sep 18 2021
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Hadley, MA
·
Turf
·
17,000 cap
Eastern Michigan✈ 567 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Eastern Michigan wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Eastern Michigan -22
O/U 56.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Eastern Michigan
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Eastern Michigan 2021 Schedule
Eastern Michigan's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Eastern Michigan vs St. Francis (PA) | -34.0W35–15 | 54.5 | W35–15 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin | +26.0L7–34 | 52.0 | L7–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts | -22.0W42–28 | 56.5 | W42–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Eastern Michigan vs Texas State | -7.5W59–21 | 62.0 | W59–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois | +0.0L20–27 | 62.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Eastern Michigan vs Miami (OH) | +2.5W13–12 | 58.0 | W13–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Eastern Michigan vs Ball State | +1.5L31–38 | 54.5 | L31–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Eastern Michigan at Bowling Green | -4.5W55–24 | 49.5 | W55–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/2 | Eastern Michigan at Toledo | +9.0W52–49 | 54.5 | W52–49 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/9 | Eastern Michigan vs Ohio | -6.0L26–34 | 61.5 | L26–34 | U | N |
| Tue 11/16 | Eastern Michigan vs Western Michigan | +6.0W22–21 | 66.0 | W22–21 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan | +8.5L10–31 | 64.0 | L10–31 | U | N |
| Sat 12/18 | Eastern Michigan vs Liberty | +9.5L20–56 | 58.5 | L20–56 | O | N |
Massachusetts 2021 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Massachusetts at Pittsburgh | +38.0L7–51 | 56.0 | L7–51 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Massachusetts vs Boston College | +39.0L28–45 | 57.0 | L28–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan | +22.0L28–42 | 56.5 | L28–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Massachusetts at Coastal Carolina | +36.0L3–53 | 66.0 | L3–53 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Massachusetts vs Toledo | +26.5L7–45 | 56.5 | L7–45 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Massachusetts vs UConn | +3.0W27–13 | 57.0 | W27–13 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Massachusetts at Florida State | +35.0L3–59 | 59.0 | L3–59 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Massachusetts at Liberty | +35.5L17–62 | 56.0 | L17–62 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Massachusetts vs Rhode Island | -2.5L22–35 | 55.5 | L22–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Massachusetts vs Maine | +6.0L10–35 | 58.5 | L10–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Massachusetts at Army | +37.5L17–33 | 56.0 | L17–33 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Massachusetts at New Mexico State | +7.0L27–44 | 58.5 | L27–44 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Eastern Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Eastern Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Eastern Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Eastern Michigan +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Eastern Michigan Edge
Eastern Michigan +48.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Eastern Michigan
Chris Creighton #1
32–52 (38%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Chris Creighton
Yr 1
#1
DC
Neal Neathery
Yr 1
#1
Massachusetts
Walt Bell #1
1–18 (5%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Angelo Mirando
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tommy Restivo
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓