Sat, Oct 9 2021
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Hadley, MA
·
Turf
·
17,000 cap
Matchup Prediction
UConn
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
UConn entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
UConn wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
UConn wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Connecticut -3
O/U 57.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → UConn
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
UConn 2021 Schedule
UConn's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/28 | UConn at Fresno State | +28.0L0–45 | 63.5 | L0–45 | U | N |
| Sat 9/4 | UConn vs Holy Cross | -3.0L28–38 | 49.5 | L28–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | UConn vs Purdue | +35.0L0–49 | 56.5 | L0–49 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | UConn at Army | +34.5L21–52 | 48.0 | L21–52 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | UConn vs Wyoming | +31.5L22–24 | 53.5 | L22–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | UConn at Vanderbilt | +14.5L28–30 | 51.5 | L28–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | UConn at Massachusetts | -3.0L13–27 | 57.0 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | UConn vs Yale | +3.5W21–15 | 46.5 | W21–15 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/22 | UConn vs Middle Tennessee | +14.0L13–44 | 54.0 | L13–44 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/13 | UConn at Clemson | +40.5L7–44 | 50.5 | L7–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | UConn at UCF | +30.0L17–49 | 56.0 | L17–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | UConn vs Houston | +32.0L17–45 | 54.5 | L17–45 | O | Y |
Massachusetts 2021 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Massachusetts at Pittsburgh | +38.0L7–51 | 56.0 | L7–51 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Massachusetts vs Boston College | +39.0L28–45 | 57.0 | L28–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan | +22.0L28–42 | 56.5 | L28–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Massachusetts at Coastal Carolina | +36.0L3–53 | 66.0 | L3–53 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Massachusetts vs Toledo | +26.5L7–45 | 56.5 | L7–45 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Massachusetts vs UConn | +3.0W27–13 | 57.0 | W27–13 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Massachusetts at Florida State | +35.0L3–59 | 59.0 | L3–59 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Massachusetts at Liberty | +35.5L17–62 | 56.0 | L17–62 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Massachusetts vs Rhode Island | -2.5L22–35 | 55.5 | L22–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Massachusetts vs Maine | +6.0L10–35 | 58.5 | L10–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Massachusetts at Army | +37.5L17–33 | 56.0 | L17–33 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Massachusetts at New Mexico State | +7.0L27–44 | 58.5 | L27–44 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UConn
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UConn Edge
UConn +0.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UConn Edge
UConn +9.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
UConn
33.8 — 35.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Massachusetts won by 14
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on UConn. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
UConn
Lou Spanos #1
0–2 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Frank Giufre
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jarren Horton
Yr 1
#1
Massachusetts
Walt Bell #1
1–18 (5%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Angelo Mirando
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tommy Restivo
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓