Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Alabama,
while Game Control favors Florida.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
80.6%
Alabama wins
Strong
Game Control
58.6%
Florida wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Alabama -14
O/U 59.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Alabama
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Alabama 2021 Schedule
Alabama's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Alabama vs Miami | -19.5W44–13 | 61.5 | W44–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Alabama vs Mercer | -54.0W48–14 | 60.5 | W48–14 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Alabama at Florida | -14.0W31–29 | 59.5 | W31–29 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Alabama vs Southern Miss | -45.0W63–14 | 57.5 | W63–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Alabama vs Ole Miss | -15.0W42–21 | 79.5 | W42–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Alabama at Texas A&M | -18.5L38–41 | 50.5 | L38–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Alabama at Mississippi State | -17.5W49–9 | 59.5 | W49–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Alabama vs Tennessee | -24.5W52–24 | 68.0 | W52–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/6 | Alabama vs LSU | -29.5W20–14 | 66.5 | W20–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Alabama vs New Mexico State | -50.0W59–3 | 67.0 | W59–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Alabama vs Arkansas | -20.5W42–35 | 58.5 | W42–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Alabama at Auburn | -21.0W24–22 | 57.5 | W24–22 | U | N |
| Sat 12/4 | Alabama vs Georgia | +6.0W41–24 | 48.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/31 | Alabama vs Cincinnati | -13.0W27–6 | 57.5 | W27–6 | U | Y |
| Mon 1/10 | Alabama vs Georgia | +3.0L18–33 | 53.5 | L18–33 | U | N |
Florida 2021 Schedule
Florida's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Florida vs Florida Atlantic | -23.5W35–14 | 51.5 | W35–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Florida at South Florida | -29.0W42–20 | 57.0 | W42–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Florida vs Alabama | +14.0L29–31 | 59.5 | L29–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Florida vs Tennessee | -19.0W38–14 | 65.0 | W38–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Florida at Kentucky | -7.5L13–20 | 56.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Florida vs Vanderbilt | -39.0W42–0 | 60.5 | W42–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Florida at LSU | -12.5L42–49 | 61.0 | L42–49 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Florida vs Georgia | +14.0L7–34 | 50.0 | L7–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Florida at South Carolina | -20.5L17–40 | 52.0 | L17–40 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Florida vs Samford | -36.0W70–52 | 68.5 | W70–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Florida at Missouri | -9.5L23–24 | 69.0 | L23–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Florida vs Florida State | -4.0W24–21 | 58.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Thu 12/23 | Florida vs UCF | -7.0L17–29 | 56.0 | L17–29 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Alabama
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Alabama
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Alabama Edge
Alabama +3.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida Edge
Florida +6.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Alabama
Nick Saban #1
167–23 (88%)
· Yr 15 at school
OC
Bill O'Brien
Yr 1
#1
DC
Pete Golding
Yr 1
#1
Florida
Dan Mullen #1
31–10 (76%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Dan Mullen
Yr 1
#1
DC
Todd Grantham
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓