Sat, Oct 9 2021
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Gainesville, FL
·
Turf
·
88,548 cap
Vanderbilt✈ 517 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Florida
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Florida entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Florida wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Florida wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Florida -39
O/U 60.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Florida
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Vanderbilt 2021 Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Vanderbilt vs East Tennessee State | -21.0L3–23 | 45.0 | L3–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Vanderbilt at Colorado State | +6.5W24–21 | 52.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Vanderbilt vs Stanford | +13.0L23–41 | 49.0 | L23–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Vanderbilt vs Georgia | +36.0L0–62 | 54.5 | L0–62 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Vanderbilt vs UConn | -14.5W30–28 | 51.5 | W30–28 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Vanderbilt at Florida | +39.0L0–42 | 60.5 | L0–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Vanderbilt at South Carolina | +19.0L20–21 | 50.0 | L20–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State | +21.0L6–45 | 53.0 | L6–45 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Vanderbilt vs Missouri | +16.0L28–37 | 62.5 | L28–37 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/13 | Vanderbilt vs Kentucky | +21.5L17–34 | 52.5 | L17–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Vanderbilt at Ole Miss | +35.5L17–31 | 66.5 | L17–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Vanderbilt at Tennessee | +33.0L21–45 | 65.0 | L21–45 | O | Y |
Florida 2021 Schedule
Florida's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Florida vs Florida Atlantic | -23.5W35–14 | 51.5 | W35–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Florida at South Florida | -29.0W42–20 | 57.0 | W42–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Florida vs Alabama | +14.0L29–31 | 59.5 | L29–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Florida vs Tennessee | -19.0W38–14 | 65.0 | W38–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Florida at Kentucky | -7.5L13–20 | 56.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Florida vs Vanderbilt | -39.0W42–0 | 60.5 | W42–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Florida at LSU | -12.5L42–49 | 61.0 | L42–49 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Florida vs Georgia | +14.0L7–34 | 50.0 | L7–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Florida at South Carolina | -20.5L17–40 | 52.0 | L17–40 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Florida vs Samford | -36.0W70–52 | 68.5 | W70–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Florida at Missouri | -9.5L23–24 | 69.0 | L23–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Florida vs Florida State | -4.0W24–21 | 58.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Thu 12/23 | Florida vs UCF | -7.0L17–29 | 56.0 | L17–29 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Florida
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Florida
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida Edge
Florida +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida Edge
Florida +36.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Florida
98.5 — 0.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Florida won by 42
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Florida with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Vanderbilt
Clark Lea #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
David Raih
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jesse Minter
Yr 1
#1
Florida
Dan Mullen #1
31–10 (76%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Dan Mullen
Yr 1
#1
DC
Todd Grantham
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓