Matchup Prediction
UCF
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
UCF entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
UCF wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
UCF wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Florida -7.0
O/U 56.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Florida
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
UCF 2021 Schedule
UCF's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | UCF vs Boise State | -6.5W36–31 | 67.0 | W36–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | UCF vs Bethune-Cookman | -46.0W63–14 | 67.0 | W63–14 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/17 | UCF at Louisville | -7.0L35–42 | 67.5 | L35–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/2 | UCF at Navy | -15.0L30–34 | 52.5 | L30–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | UCF vs East Carolina | -10.0W20–16 | 65.0 | W20–16 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | UCF at Cincinnati | +21.5L21–56 | 56.0 | L21–56 | O | N |
| Fri 10/22 | UCF vs Memphis | -1.5W24–7 | 63.5 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | UCF at Temple | -12.0W49–7 | 52.0 | W49–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | UCF vs Tulane | -13.5W14–10 | 57.0 | W14–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | UCF at SMU | +7.0L28–55 | 61.5 | L28–55 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | UCF vs UConn | -30.0W49–17 | 56.0 | W49–17 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | UCF vs South Florida | -17.0W17–13 | 62.0 | W17–13 | U | N |
| Thu 12/23 | UCF vs Florida | +7.0W29–17 | 56.0 | W29–17 | U | Y |
Florida 2021 Schedule
Florida's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Florida vs Florida Atlantic | -23.5W35–14 | 51.5 | W35–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Florida at South Florida | -29.0W42–20 | 57.0 | W42–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Florida vs Alabama | +14.0L29–31 | 59.5 | L29–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Florida vs Tennessee | -19.0W38–14 | 65.0 | W38–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Florida at Kentucky | -7.5L13–20 | 56.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Florida vs Vanderbilt | -39.0W42–0 | 60.5 | W42–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Florida at LSU | -12.5L42–49 | 61.0 | L42–49 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Florida vs Georgia | +14.0L7–34 | 50.0 | L7–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Florida at South Carolina | -20.5L17–40 | 52.0 | L17–40 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Florida vs Samford | -36.0W70–52 | 68.5 | W70–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Florida at Missouri | -9.5L23–24 | 69.0 | L23–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Florida vs Florida State | -4.0W24–21 | 58.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Thu 12/23 | Florida vs UCF | -7.0L17–29 | 56.0 | L17–29 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UCF Edge
UCF +0.09
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UCF Edge
UCF +0.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on UCF, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
UCF
Gus Malzahn #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
G. J. Kinne
Yr 1
#1
DC
Travis Williams
Yr 1
#1
Florida
Dan Mullen #1
31–10 (76%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Dan Mullen
Yr 1
#1
DC
Todd Grantham
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓