Sun, Nov 14 2021
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Vanderbilt Stadium
Nashville, TN
·
Turf
·
40,350 cap
Kentucky✈ 181 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Kentucky
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Kentucky entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Kentucky wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Kentucky wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Kentucky -21.5
O/U 52.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kentucky
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kentucky 2021 Schedule
Kentucky's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Kentucky vs UL Monroe | -31.0W45–10 | 54.0 | W45–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Kentucky vs Missouri | -5.5W35–28 | 56.5 | W35–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Kentucky vs Chattanooga | -33.5W28–23 | 48.0 | W28–23 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Kentucky at South Carolina | -4.5W16–10 | 49.0 | W16–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Kentucky vs Florida | +7.5W20–13 | 56.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Kentucky vs LSU | -2.0W42–21 | 50.5 | W42–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Kentucky at Georgia | +21.5L13–30 | 44.5 | L13–30 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Kentucky at Mississippi State | +1.0L17–31 | 47.0 | L17–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Kentucky vs Tennessee | +1.0L42–45 | 57.5 | L42–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Kentucky at Vanderbilt | -21.5W34–17 | 52.5 | W34–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Kentucky vs New Mexico State | -35.5W56–16 | 61.0 | W56–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Kentucky at Louisville | +3.0W52–21 | 58.0 | W52–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 1/1 | Kentucky vs Iowa | -3.0W20–17 | 43.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
Vanderbilt 2021 Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Vanderbilt vs East Tennessee State | -21.0L3–23 | 45.0 | L3–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Vanderbilt at Colorado State | +6.5W24–21 | 52.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Vanderbilt vs Stanford | +13.0L23–41 | 49.0 | L23–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Vanderbilt vs Georgia | +36.0L0–62 | 54.5 | L0–62 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Vanderbilt vs UConn | -14.5W30–28 | 51.5 | W30–28 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Vanderbilt at Florida | +39.0L0–42 | 60.5 | L0–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Vanderbilt at South Carolina | +19.0L20–21 | 50.0 | L20–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State | +21.0L6–45 | 53.0 | L6–45 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Vanderbilt vs Missouri | +16.0L28–37 | 62.5 | L28–37 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/13 | Vanderbilt vs Kentucky | +21.5L17–34 | 52.5 | L17–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Vanderbilt at Ole Miss | +35.5L17–31 | 66.5 | L17–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Vanderbilt at Tennessee | +33.0L21–45 | 65.0 | L21–45 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kentucky
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kentucky
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kentucky
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Kentucky Edge
Kentucky +0.38
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Kentucky Edge
Kentucky +37.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Kentucky with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Kentucky
Mark Stoops #1
52–50 (51%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Liam Coen
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brad White
Yr 1
#1
Vanderbilt
Clark Lea #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
David Raih
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jesse Minter
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓