Sun, Nov 21 2021
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Oxford, MS
·
Turf
·
64,038 cap
Vanderbilt✈ 196 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Ole Miss
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Ole Miss entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Ole Miss wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Ole Miss wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Ole Miss -35.5
O/U 66.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ole Miss
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Vanderbilt 2021 Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Vanderbilt vs East Tennessee State | -21.0L3–23 | 45.0 | L3–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Vanderbilt at Colorado State | +6.5W24–21 | 52.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Vanderbilt vs Stanford | +13.0L23–41 | 49.0 | L23–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Vanderbilt vs Georgia | +36.0L0–62 | 54.5 | L0–62 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Vanderbilt vs UConn | -14.5W30–28 | 51.5 | W30–28 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Vanderbilt at Florida | +39.0L0–42 | 60.5 | L0–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Vanderbilt at South Carolina | +19.0L20–21 | 50.0 | L20–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State | +21.0L6–45 | 53.0 | L6–45 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Vanderbilt vs Missouri | +16.0L28–37 | 62.5 | L28–37 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/13 | Vanderbilt vs Kentucky | +21.5L17–34 | 52.5 | L17–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Vanderbilt at Ole Miss | +35.5L17–31 | 66.5 | L17–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Vanderbilt at Tennessee | +33.0L21–45 | 65.0 | L21–45 | O | Y |
Ole Miss 2021 Schedule
Ole Miss's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 9/6 | Ole Miss vs Louisville | -9.0W43–24 | 74.5 | W43–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Ole Miss vs Austin Peay | -37.0W54–17 | 69.5 | W54–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Ole Miss vs Tulane | -14.0W61–21 | 77.0 | W61–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/2 | Ole Miss at Alabama | +15.0L21–42 | 79.5 | L21–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Ole Miss vs Arkansas | -5.0W52–51 | 67.0 | W52–51 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Ole Miss at Tennessee | -1.0W31–26 | 82.0 | W31–26 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Ole Miss vs LSU | -9.0W31–17 | 76.5 | W31–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Ole Miss at Auburn | +3.0L20–31 | 67.5 | L20–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Ole Miss vs Liberty | -7.5W27–14 | 66.5 | W27–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Ole Miss vs Texas A&M | +1.0W29–19 | 57.5 | W29–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt | -35.5W31–17 | 66.5 | W31–17 | U | N |
| Thu 11/25 | Ole Miss at Mississippi State | +2.5W31–21 | 65.0 | W31–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 1/1 | Ole Miss vs Baylor | -1.0L7–21 | 60.5 | L7–21 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ole Miss
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ole Miss
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ole Miss
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ole Miss Edge
Ole Miss +1.06
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ole Miss Edge
Ole Miss +47.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ole Miss
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Ole Miss
99.1 — 0.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Ole Miss won by 14
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Ole Miss with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Vanderbilt
Clark Lea #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
David Raih
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jesse Minter
Yr 1
#1
Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin #1
8–5 (62%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jeff Lebby
Yr 1
#1
DC
D. J. Durkin
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓