Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Tennessee,
while Game Control favors Kentucky.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Tennessee wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Kentucky wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Tennessee -1
O/U 57.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Tennessee 2021 Schedule
Tennessee's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Tennessee vs Bowling Green | -37.0W38–6 | 60.5 | W38–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Tennessee vs Pittsburgh | +3.5L34–41 | 56.0 | L34–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech | -38.0W56–0 | 53.0 | W56–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Tennessee at Florida | +19.0L14–38 | 65.0 | L14–38 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Tennessee at Missouri | +2.5W62–24 | 66.5 | W62–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Tennessee vs South Carolina | -10.5W45–20 | 57.0 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Tennessee vs Ole Miss | +1.0L26–31 | 82.0 | L26–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Tennessee at Alabama | +24.5L24–52 | 68.0 | L24–52 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/6 | Tennessee at Kentucky | -1.0W45–42 | 57.5 | W45–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Tennessee vs Georgia | +19.0L17–41 | 56.0 | L17–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Tennessee vs South Alabama | -28.5W60–14 | 61.5 | W60–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Tennessee vs Vanderbilt | -33.0W45–21 | 65.0 | W45–21 | O | N |
| Thu 12/30 | Tennessee vs Purdue | -8.0L45–48 | 67.0 | L45–48 | O | N |
Kentucky 2021 Schedule
Kentucky's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Kentucky vs UL Monroe | -31.0W45–10 | 54.0 | W45–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Kentucky vs Missouri | -5.5W35–28 | 56.5 | W35–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Kentucky vs Chattanooga | -33.5W28–23 | 48.0 | W28–23 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Kentucky at South Carolina | -4.5W16–10 | 49.0 | W16–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Kentucky vs Florida | +7.5W20–13 | 56.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Kentucky vs LSU | -2.0W42–21 | 50.5 | W42–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Kentucky at Georgia | +21.5L13–30 | 44.5 | L13–30 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Kentucky at Mississippi State | +1.0L17–31 | 47.0 | L17–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Kentucky vs Tennessee | +1.0L42–45 | 57.5 | L42–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Kentucky at Vanderbilt | -21.5W34–17 | 52.5 | W34–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Kentucky vs New Mexico State | -35.5W56–16 | 61.0 | W56–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Kentucky at Louisville | +3.0W52–21 | 58.0 | W52–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 1/1 | Kentucky vs Iowa | -3.0W20–17 | 43.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Tennessee Edge
Tennessee +0.64
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Kentucky Edge
Kentucky +10.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Tennessee
16.2 — 60.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Tennessee won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Tennessee
Josh Heupel #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Alex Golesh
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tim Banks
Yr 1
#1
Kentucky
Mark Stoops #1
52–50 (51%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Liam Coen
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brad White
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓