Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Kentucky -31
O/U 54.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kentucky
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
UL Monroe 2021 Schedule
UL Monroe's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | UL Monroe at Kentucky | +31.0L10–45 | 54.0 | L10–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/18 | UL Monroe vs Jackson State | -4.5W12–7 | 52.0 | W12–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | UL Monroe vs Troy | +23.5W29–16 | 49.5 | W29–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina | +33.5L6–59 | 57.5 | L6–59 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | UL Monroe vs Georgia State | +16.0L21–55 | 49.5 | L21–55 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | UL Monroe vs Liberty | +32.5W31–28 | 57.0 | W31–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | UL Monroe vs South Alabama | +13.5W41–31 | 51.5 | W41–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | UL Monroe at App State | +26.5L28–59 | 57.5 | L28–59 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | UL Monroe at Texas State | +3.0L19–27 | 57.5 | L19–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | UL Monroe vs Arkansas State | -3.0L24–27 | 66.5 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | UL Monroe at LSU | +29.0L14–27 | 57.5 | L14–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | UL Monroe at Louisiana | +21.5L16–21 | 56.0 | L16–21 | U | Y |
Kentucky 2021 Schedule
Kentucky's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Kentucky vs UL Monroe | -31.0W45–10 | 54.0 | W45–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Kentucky vs Missouri | -5.5W35–28 | 56.5 | W35–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Kentucky vs Chattanooga | -33.5W28–23 | 48.0 | W28–23 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Kentucky at South Carolina | -4.5W16–10 | 49.0 | W16–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Kentucky vs Florida | +7.5W20–13 | 56.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Kentucky vs LSU | -2.0W42–21 | 50.5 | W42–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Kentucky at Georgia | +21.5L13–30 | 44.5 | L13–30 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Kentucky at Mississippi State | +1.0L17–31 | 47.0 | L17–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Kentucky vs Tennessee | +1.0L42–45 | 57.5 | L42–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Kentucky at Vanderbilt | -21.5W34–17 | 52.5 | W34–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Kentucky vs New Mexico State | -35.5W56–16 | 61.0 | W56–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Kentucky at Louisville | +3.0W52–21 | 58.0 | W52–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 1/1 | Kentucky vs Iowa | -3.0W20–17 | 43.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kentucky
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kentucky
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kentucky
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UL Monroe Edge
UL Monroe +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UL Monroe Edge
UL Monroe +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kentucky
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kentucky
90.9 — 1.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Kentucky won by 35
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Kentucky, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
UL Monroe
Terry Bowden #1
1–1 (50%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Rich Rodriguez
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zac Alley
Yr 1
#1
Kentucky
Mark Stoops #1
52–50 (51%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Liam Coen
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brad White
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓