New Mexico State at Kentucky Week 12 College Football Matchup New Mexico State at Kentucky Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 20 2021 · Week 12 · 🏟 Commonwealth Stadium Lexington, KY · Turf · 61,000 cap
New Mexico State✈ 1,313 mi+2 hr TZ
16 56
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
New Mexico State
14
NMSU +35.5
Kentucky
47
P&R Line Kentucky -33
P&R Total O/U 61
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Kentucky -35.5 · O/U 61.0
Matchup Prediction
Kentucky has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kentucky entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Kentucky wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Kentucky wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Kentucky -35.5
O/U 61.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kentucky · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 New Mexico State 2nd straight Road Game
New Mexico State 2021 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/28New Mexico State vs UTEP+9.5L3–3059.0L3–30UN
Sat 9/4New Mexico State at San Diego State+31.0L10–2851.0L10–28UY
Sat 9/11New Mexico State at New Mexico+19.5L25–3455.5L25–34OY
Sat 9/18New Mexico State vs South Carolina State-3.5W43–3554.5W43–35OY
Sat 9/25New Mexico State vs Hawai'i+17.0L21–4163.0L21–41UN
Sat 10/2New Mexico State at San José State+25.5L31–3751.5L31–37OY
Sat 10/9New Mexico State at Nevada+28.5L28–5564.5L28–55OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/23New Mexico State at Hawai'i+18.0L34–4862.5L34–48OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/6New Mexico State vs Utah State+18.0L13–3572.0L13–35UN
Sat 11/13New Mexico State at Alabama+50.0L3–5967.0L3–59UN
Sat 11/20New Mexico State at Kentucky+35.5L16–5661.0L16–56ON
Sat 11/27New Mexico State vs Massachusetts-7.0W44–2758.5W44–27OY
Kentucky 2021 Schedule
Kentucky's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Kentucky vs UL Monroe-31.0W45–1054.0W45–10OY
Sat 9/11Kentucky vs Missouri-5.5W35–2856.5W35–28OY
Sat 9/18Kentucky vs Chattanooga-33.5W28–2348.0W28–23ON
Sat 9/25Kentucky at South Carolina-4.5W16–1049.0W16–10UY
Sat 10/2Kentucky vs Florida+7.5W20–1356.5W20–13UY
Sat 10/9Kentucky vs LSU-2.0W42–2150.5W42–21OY
Sat 10/16Kentucky at Georgia+21.5L13–3044.5L13–30UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/30Kentucky at Mississippi State+1.0L17–3147.0L17–31ON
Sat 11/6Kentucky vs Tennessee+1.0L42–4557.5L42–45ON
Sat 11/13Kentucky at Vanderbilt-21.5W34–1752.5W34–17UN
Sat 11/20Kentucky vs New Mexico State-35.5W56–1661.0W56–16OY
Sat 11/27Kentucky at Louisville+3.0W52–2158.0W52–21OY
Sat 1/1Kentucky vs Iowa-3.0W20–1743.5W20–17UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Kentucky PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kentucky
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kentucky
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kentucky
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
New Mexico State
+0.280
Kentucky
+0.654
Kentucky Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State
+0.380
Kentucky
+0.942
Kentucky Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
New Mexico State
0.170
Kentucky
0.176
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kentucky Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State
+6.714
Kentucky
+8.820
Kentucky Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
New Mexico State
+0.863
Kentucky
+1.003
Kentucky Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
New Mexico State
74.0
Kentucky
72.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kentucky Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kentucky Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
New Mexico State
-14.8
Kentucky
0.2
Offense Rating
New Mexico State
6.3
Kentucky
16.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
New Mexico State
21.1
Kentucky
16.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kentucky Edge
Avg sequences created per game
New Mexico State #123
0.44
Kentucky #57
0.89
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #142
2.33
Kentucky #64
0.78
Kentucky +0.45
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kentucky Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
New Mexico State #1
15.0
Kentucky #1
62.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #123
78.8
Kentucky #23
28.2
Kentucky +47.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kentucky
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Kentucky
91.9 — 1.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Kentucky won by 40
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kentucky with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
New Mexico State
Doug Martin #1
23–67 (26%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Doug Martin Yr 1 #1
DC Frank Spaziani Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kentucky
Mark Stoops #1
52–50 (51%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Liam Coen Yr 1 #1
DC Brad White Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself