North Texas at Tulsa - 2026 Matchup Preview
North Texas logo   North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden Hurricane  Tulsa logo
Thursday, October 1st 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
at H. A. Chapman Stadium - Tulsa, OK  (American Athletic)

 
Mean Green (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Neal Brown (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (44 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 3.6 (#24)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
TLSA is playing their 5th straight game
UNT is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: North Texas -8  (SP+ UNT -24)
Projected Score: UNT: 35 - TLSA: 27 (62)
UNT Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
UNT Travel: 215 miles
Golden Hurricane (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tre Lamb (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (27 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#54)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)
 
North Texas's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 North Texas at Indiana+28.5
Sat 9/12 North Texas vs UNLV-5
Sat 9/19 North Texas at Texas State-0.5
Sat 9/26 North Texas vs Houston Christian-27.5
Thu 10/1 North Texas at Tulsa-8
Sat 10/10 North Texas vs Charlotte-27.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/24 North Texas at Navy-1.5
Thu 10/29 North Texas vs Florida Atlantic-15
Sat 11/7 North Texas vs Rice-20.5
Sat 11/14 North Texas at UTSA-1.5
Sat 11/21 North Texas at Tulane-0.5
Sat 11/28 North Texas vs UAB-22

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
Tulsa's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Tulsa vs Oklahoma State+0.5
Sat 9/12 Tulsa at Sam Houston-13.5
Sat 9/19 Tulsa vs East Texas A&M-17
Sat 9/26 Tulsa at Arkansas+13.5
Thu 10/1 Tulsa vs North Texas+8
Sat 10/10 Tulsa at Navy+9
Sat 10/17 Tulsa at Rice-5
Fri 10/23 Tulsa vs Army+1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/7 Tulsa at Tulane+9.5
Sat 11/14 Tulsa vs Florida Atlantic-4.5
Sat 11/21 Tulsa vs Charlotte-17
Sat 11/28 Tulsa at UTSA+9

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Tulsa's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT#2 (.36)51% (3)45.153% (2)3.58 (1)19451% (8)3174.98 (4)#80 (.18)44% (94)26.548% (125)37% (26)4.03 (104)45.51.42
TLSA#105 (.11)40% (97)23.242% (88)2.87 (79)17638% (105)2233.34 (106)#60 (.15)43% (81)28.942% (65)44% (100)3.78 (77)38.21.60.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TLSA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Offense1445.143.751.5%4.981.4265111943175.348%51%53%51%12%.36
TLSA Defense1228.927.242.5%3.780.9 - - - - - 56%43%42%44%13%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Defense1426.528.343.5%4.032 - - - - - 60%38%48%37%14%.18
TLSA Offense1223.227.340.4%3.341.6223991762234.451%47%42%38%17%.11

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Texas1428:2225.546%69%5.645.51.425.31.7033.8
Tulsa1228:3322.238%57%5.138.21.60.95.31.9027.4
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Offense1448% (84)53% (2)36.6194.15.349 (1).33 (3)3.58 (1)73% (58)7% (8)1.1 (17)
TLSA Defense1256% (127)42% (65) - - - - .06 (47)2.92 (76)67% (36)9% (99)0.94 (58)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Defense1460% (134)48% (125) - - - - .18 (111)3.19 (118)77% (111)9% (80)1.01 (92)
TLSA Offense1251% (56)42% (88)40.41764.418 (107).05 (101)2.87 (79)60% (127)11% (111)1.03 (47)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Offense1451% (50)51% (8)23.234.1317.39.313.735 (8)9 (20).43 (12)1.6 (63)26% (9)39% (6).44 (22)5% (25)2 (68)
TLSA Defense1243% (14)44% (100) - - - - - - 7 (55).28 (84)1.5 (52)29% (115)31% (92).28 (65)4% (131)1.8 (15)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Defense1438% (2)37% (26) - - - - - - 15 (31).21 (55)1.7 (113)29% (116)28% (58).27 (62)4% (126)2 (58)
TLSA Offense1247% (82)38% (105)20.134.1222.56.511.115 (86)10 (108).15 (114)1.5 (104)32% (80)28% (89).26 (87)6% (78)1.9 (106)

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -5.53  #90
North Texas's Offense Rating: 10.67  #85
North Texas's Defense Rating: 21.20  #107
2026 Talent Rating: 676.00  #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #87
North Texas's 2026 Expected Record: 8.4 - 3.6
North Texas's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.8  #22
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 43.1  #1
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #78

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 576.71
Average Power Five Talent: 912.75
Average FBS Talent: 730.33

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -5.53   Tulsa: -3.755

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: 13.8   Tulsa: -10.0




Tulsa's Power Ratings
Tulsa's Power Rating: -3.755  #81
Tulsa's Offense Rating: 8.48  #95
Tulsa's Defense Rating: 15.99  #68
2026 Talent Rating: 622.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #103
Tulsa's 2026 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Tulsa's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.0  #104
Tulsa's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #105
Tulsa's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #107

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 576.71
Average Power Five Talent: 912.75
Average FBS Talent: 730.33


North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 43.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.3

North Texas's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
North Texas 35
Tulsa 27

Projected Total Points: 62
Tulsa Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.3
Defense: 28.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Tulsa's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28North Texas52Tulsa20North Texas -7North Texas65.5Over
202311/18Tulsa28North Texas35North Texas -1.5North Texas69.5Under
201311/30Tulsa10North Texas42North Texas -3North Texas0
201110/01Tulsa41North Texas24
200809/06North Texas26Tulsa56
200609/16Tulsa28North Texas3
200509/17North Texas2Tulsa54
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Tulsa401 Overs
North Texas331 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 41 - 21 - 00 - 2
Road Teams4 - 32 - 12 - 00 - 1

(#90) UNT at (#81) TLSA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNTTLSA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #90 #81
SP+SP+ #22 #104
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #82 #89
Blue ChipsBC% #87 #103
North Texas Notes
(2/23) Vibes: Uneasy, lost HC & portals to Ok St
(2/23) New era under Brown, DC Powledge not great
(2/23) QB T Jackson (UCF) is interesting, depth is ?
(2/23) RB J White (WVU) over 1.7K but coming off inj
(2/23) WR a patchwork of portals, most exp'd from FCS
(2/23) OL looks rough, only 1 exp'd starter, many ?
(2/23) DL/LB could be OK, some good exp, mixed prod
(2/23) DBs huge ?, very little exp outside 1 FCS CB
North Texas Injury Report
North Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffTLSA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #3 #81
ExplosiveExp #32 #44
PPAPPA #2 #60
PowerPwr #85 #68
SP+SP+ #1 #107
Pts POPPO #4 #77
HavocHav #9 #121
North Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffTLSA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #2 #65
Run ExplRExp #17 #58
PPAExp #3 #47
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #1 #76
Stuff RateStuff #7 #76
TackleTak - NR
North Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffTLSA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #8 #100
Pass ExplPExl #63 #52
PPAExp #12 #84
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #8 #99
DB HavocDB #25 #131
Tulsa on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatTLSA OffUNT Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #97 #94
ExplosiveExp #59 #52
PPAPPA #105 #80
PowerPwr #95 #107
SP+SP+ #105 #78
Pts POPPO #106 #104
HavocHav #104 #108
Tulsa Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
TLSA OffUNT Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #88 #125
Run ExplRExp #47 #92
PPAExp #101 #111
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #79 #118
Stuff RateStuff #125 #125
TackleTak - NR
Tulsa Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatTLSA OffUNT Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #105 #26
Pass ExplPExl #104 #113
PPAExp #114 #55
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #111 #80
DB HavocDB #78 #126
Program Comparison
TLSA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

UNT 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in at H. A. Chapman Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
North Texas beat Tulsa in 2024 (52-20)
North Texas beat Tulsa in 2023 (35-28)

  
UNT's OC Neal Brown (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tayven Jackson (Tr)20031564%21511086.8
Chaston Ditta (Tr)122450%215309.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Osho (Tr)11968685.879
Jahiem White (Tr)2413335.532
Jayden Becks218724.116
Tayven Jackson (Tr)548531.625
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
James Tyre (Tr)688321112.242
Grayson O'Bara (Tr)44590213.471
Corri Milliner (Tr)24341314.249
Dalton Carnes780011.421

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Matt Powledge (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aaron Alexander (Tr)923100
David Onuoha (Tr)425320
Udoka Ezeani (Tr)4110531
Davion Rhodes (Tr)346011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Udoka Ezeani (Tr)4110531
David Onuoha (Tr)425320
Zhaiylen Scott142230
Brayden Knox192100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryan Allen Jr.151004
Caden Jenkins (Tr)101003
Keshawn Davila (Tr)20002

TLSA's OC Ty Darlington (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Baylor Hayes18631659%21591266.8
Dexter Williams II (Tr)6712554%787636.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Trequan Jones (Tr)10579267.593
DJ McKinney (Tr)11146474.254
Baylor Hayes9518832.024
Dexter Williams II (Tr)4115333.716
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javon Ross (Tr)50603312.179
David Wells Jr. (Tr)44466410.656
Grayson Tempest22272112.451
Josh Smith9201122.343

View Tulsa's Full Roster

TLSA's DC Mike Gray (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zach Williams731007
William Alexander661010
Elijah Green592007
Devin Robinson506002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Thomas Davis (Tr)256320
Dax Collins101100
Tai Newhouse392110
Zach Williams731007
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zach Williams731007
Elijah Green592007
Caldra Williford (Tr)161004