Arkansas State at Memphis - 2026 Matchup Preview
Arkansas State logo   Arkansas State Red Wolves at Memphis Tigers  Memphis logo
Saturday, September 5th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN

 
Red Wolves (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (26 - 37)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#94)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Memphis -25  (SP+ MEM -16)
Projected Score: ARST: 14 - MEM: 39 (52)
MEM Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
ARST Travel: 64 miles
Tigers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Charles Huff (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (34 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.1 - 2.9 (#15)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
 
Arkansas State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Arkansas State at Memphis+25
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19 Arkansas State at TCU+28

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Memphis's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 Memphis at UNLV-1.5
Sat 9/5 Memphis vs Arkansas State-25
Sat 9/12 Memphis at Boise State+0.5
Sat 9/19 Memphis vs UT Martin-29.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3 Memphis at Charlotte-24
Sat 10/10 Memphis vs UAB-24
Fri 10/16 Memphis at Tulane-2
Thu 10/22 Memphis vs East Carolina-5.5
Sat 10/31 Memphis vs Army-10.5
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/12 Memphis at South Florida+4.5
Sat 11/21 Memphis at Navy-3
Sat 11/28 Memphis vs Temple-13.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Memphis's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#111 (.09)42% (71)25.240% (101)2.65 (119)12444% (47)2603.31 (110)#89 (.19)43% (92)27.444% (83)44% (98)3.9 (89)57.81.81.3
MEM#24 (.26)45% (40)32.549% (12)3.33 (11)18342% (70)2284.41 (23)#92 (.19)42% (66)23.239% (32)45% (110)4 (100)48.10.91.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MEM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Offense1325.22142%3.311.8223831242603.642%56%40%44%18%.09
MEM Defense1323.224.241.6%41.5 - - - - - 50%49%39%45%17%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Defense1327.421.843.4%3.91.3 - - - - - 52%46%44%44%16%.19
MEM Offense1332.534.244.9%4.410.9234121832285.148%50%49%42%14%.26

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas State1329:3122.239%60%6.357.81.81.36.23330.4
Memphis1331:3822.742%56%5.548.10.91.561.6329.4
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Offense1342% (123)40% (101)34.5123.53.614 (107)-.01 (125)2.65 (119)70% (80)10% (91)0.8 (126)
MEM Defense1350% (71)39% (32) - - - - .04 (32)2.57 (13)73% (87)11% (28)0.98 (81)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Defense1352% (96)44% (83) - - - - .12 (82)2.75 (44)69% (49)11% (40)1.01 (95)
MEM Offense1348% (79)49% (12)36.2183.25.134 (1).3 (5)3.33 (11)75% (47)10% (98)1.17 (7)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Offense1356% (13)44% (47)25.739.1259.86.710.120 (86)12 (60).21 (86)1.4 (123)30% (45)28% (86).27 (83)8% (125)2.1 (28)
MEM Defense1349% (72)45% (110) - - - - - - 12 (6).37 (118)1.6 (105)32% (62)30% (77).37 (105)6% (47)2.1 (113)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Defense1346% (46)44% (98) - - - - - - 7 (75).31 (100)1.6 (89)30% (88)32% (97).42 (118)5% (108)2.2 (119)
MEM Offense1350% (60)42% (70)21.431.7228.47.210.717 (86)9 (88).23 (80)1.5 (95)32% (83)32% (42).34 (55)4% (14)2.1 (43)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -24.05  #138
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: -0.33  #134
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 28.72  #138
2026 Talent Rating: 372.00  #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #103
Arkansas State's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Arkansas State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8  #100
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #90
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #111

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 527.64
Average Power Five Talent: 912.93
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -24.05   Memphis: 8.33

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -8.8   Memphis: 7.6




Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 8.33  #58
Memphis's Offense Rating: 15.50  #46
Memphis's Defense Rating: 16.44  #74
2026 Talent Rating: 848.00  #49
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #72
Memphis's 2026 Expected Record: 9.1 - 2.9
Memphis's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.6  #39
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.3  #21
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3  #75

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 576.71
Average Power Five Talent: 912.93
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Memphis 39
Arkansas State 14

Projected Total Points: 52
Memphis Scoring
Offense: 32.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Memphis's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/09Arkansas State3Memphis37Memphis -21Memphis57.0Under
202209/17Memphis44Arkansas State32Memphis -14.5Arkansas State64.0Over
202109/11Arkansas State50Memphis55Memphis -5.5Arkansas State65.0Over
202009/05Memphis37Arkansas State24Memphis -18.5Arkansas State71.5Under
201309/21Memphis31Arkansas State7Arkansas State -3Memphis0
201209/08Arkansas State33Memphis28
201109/10Arkansas State47Memphis3
200809/27Memphis29Arkansas State17
200709/27Arkansas State35Memphis31
200610/14Memphis23Arkansas State26
200409/18Arkansas State35Memphis47
200309/27Memphis38Arkansas State16
200009/15Arkansas State17Memphis19
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Memphis922 Overs
Arkansas State432 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 52 - 30 - 22 - 1
Road Teams5 - 83 - 21 - 22 - 0

(#138) ARST at (#58) MEM
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatARSTMEM
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #138 #58
SP+SP+ #100 #39
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #131 #49
Blue ChipsBC% #103 #72
Arkansas State Notes
(2/24) Three straight bowls under Jones, decent job
(2/24) QB1? portals Owens (Tex) vs St-Hilaire (Vandy)
(2/24) RB Jolly (Utep) has exp, missed LY. Depth huge ?
(2/24) WR six players, 5 are true freshman? Must add
(2/24) Current official roster lacking a ton. Revisit
Arkansas State Injury Report
Memphis Notes
(2/2) HC Huff good hire, OC Decker (ODU) great hire
Memphis Injury Report
Arkansas State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffMEM Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #71 #66
ExplosiveExp #127 #104
PPAPPA #111 #92
PowerPwr #134 #74
SP+SP+ #90 #75
Pts POPPO #110 #100
HavocHav #111 #30
Arkansas State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffMEM Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #101 #32
Run ExplRExp #126 #81
PPAExp #125 #32
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #119 #13
Stuff RateStuff #111 #29
TackleTak - NR
Arkansas State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffMEM Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #47 #110
Pass ExplPExl #123 #105
PPAExp #86 #118
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #91 #28
DB HavocDB #125 #47
Memphis on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatMEM OffARST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #40 #92
ExplosiveExp #31 #93
PPAPPA #24 #89
PowerPwr #46 #138
SP+SP+ #21 #111
Pts POPPO #23 #89
HavocHav #49 #72
Memphis Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
MEM OffARST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #12 #83
Run ExplRExp #7 #95
PPAExp #5 #82
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #11 #44
Stuff RateStuff #75 #64
TackleTak - NR
Memphis Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatMEM OffARST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #70 #98
Pass ExplPExl #95 #89
PPAExp #80 #100
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #98 #40
DB HavocDB #14 #108
Program Comparison
MEM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Up to Average P4

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Memphis beat Arkansas State in 2023 (37-3)

  
ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Dickey (Tr)1250%280014.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Drew Dickey (Tr)31314.39
Joshua Burrell (Tr)1404.04
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Joshua Burrell (Tr)3629028.129
Makai Shahid (Tr)121021.021

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Griffin McCarley (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shakai Woods (Tr)487331
Five Hamilton (Tr)382002
Noah Flores261102
Makai Shahid (Tr)60001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shakai Woods (Tr)487331
Tyeland Coleman (Tr)21100
Noah Flores261102
Sultan Badmus (Tr)51101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Five Hamilton (Tr)382002
Noah Flores261102
Shakai Woods (Tr)487331

MEM's OC Kevin Decker (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Air Noland (Tr)2367%13004.3
Brady Kluse11100%140014.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dallan Hayden (Tr)7032614.742
Manny Covey (Tr)2719417.236
Tychaun Chapman (Tr)112012.012
Air Noland (Tr)1404.04
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tychaun Chapman (Tr)24444318.550
Hunter Tipton (Tr)39411210.537
Brady Kluse22240210.925
Justin Hughes9132014.733

View Memphis's Full Roster

MEM's DC Lance Guidry (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302
Ian Foster (Tr)764127
J'Mond Tapp (Tr)69128102
Ahmere Foster (Tr)471012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J'Mond Tapp (Tr)69128102
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302
Taylor Burton112112
Ian Foster (Tr)764127
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Richard271008
Ian Foster (Tr)764127
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302