Arkansas State at Troy - 2019 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Troy Trojans

Saturday, September 28th 2019 (6:00 PM EDT)
Troy -7 (59.5)
Arkansas State 50 - Troy: 43 (Sun Belt)

Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
'19 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -2 (SP+ ARST -1.5)
Projected Score: ARST: 23 - TROY: 25 (48)
TROY Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
ARST Travel: 389 miles

Trojans (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 23 @ Home)
'19 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
TROY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2019 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arkansas State vs SMU	-1.5	58.5	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/7	Arkansas State at UNLV	-1.0	63.5	W 43 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Arkansas State at Georgia	+32.5	58.5	L 0 - 55	U	N
Sat 9/21	Arkansas State vs Southern Illinois	-23.0	62.0	W 41 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/28	Arkansas State at Troy	+7.0	59.5	W 50 - 43	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Arkansas State at Georgia State	-6.5	69.0	L 38 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/17	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+6.0	69.0	L 20 - 37	U	N
Sat 10/26	Arkansas State vs Texas State	-11.5	60.5	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	-1.0	69.0	W 48 - 41	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	-14.0	60.5	W 28 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/23	Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern	-1.0	52.5	W 38 - 33	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Arkansas State at South Alabama	-10.5	53.0	L 30 - 34	O	N
Sat 12/21	Arkansas State vs Florida International	+1.5	60.0	W 34 - 26	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Troy's 2019 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Troy vs Campbell	-35.5	49.0	W 43 - 14	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Troy vs Southern Miss	-3.0	49.0	L 42 - 47	O	N
Sat 9/21	Troy at Akron	-18.5	57.0	W 35 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Troy vs Arkansas State	-7.0	59.5	L 43 - 50	O	N
Sat 10/5	Troy at Missouri	+25.5	65.0	L 10 - 42	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/16	Troy vs South Alabama	-17.5	55.5	W 37 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Troy at Georgia State	-1.0	67.0	L 33 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/2	Troy at Coastal Carolina	-2.0	60.5	L 35 - 36	O	N
Sat 11/9	Troy vs Georgia Southern	+2.5	57.0	W 49 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Troy at Texas State	-7.0	65.0	W 63 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Troy at Louisiana	+13.0	74.5	L 3 - 53	U	N
Fri 11/29	Troy vs App State	+11.0	64.0	L 13 - 48	U	N

Important Stats (2018)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.22	46%	25.2	46%	3.35	186	45%	281	3.4	.13	39%	27.4	41%	35%	3.39	68.1	1.2	1.5
TROY	.18	42%	23.5	38%	2.71	175	42%	215	3.56	.12	41%	23.9	40%	41%	3.45	55.9	1.6	2.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TROY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2018

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	13	25.2	21	45.8%	3.4	1.2	23	467	186	281	4.8	48%	50%	46%	45%	14%	.22
TROY Defense	13	23.9	22.8	40.9%	3.45	2.3	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	40%	41%	20%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	13	27.4	21.8	38.8%	3.39	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	41%	35%	20%	.13
TROY Offense	13	23.5	25.3	41.6%	3.56	1.6	19	390	175	215	4.7	52%	46%	38%	42%	16%	.18

Additional Stats 2018

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	13	30:07	23.1	40%	53%	7.6	68.1	1.2	1.5	6.8	2.3	3	28.6
Troy	13	30:02	19.1	38%	48%	7	55.9	1.6	2.3	7.7	3	3	31.7

Run Game Stats (2019)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	13	48%	46%	39.1	185.7	4.8	18	.17	3.35	70%	8%	0.91
TROY Defense	13	53%	40%	-	-	-	-	-.01	2.58	67%	14%	0.85

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	13	56%	41%	-	-	-	-	.1	2.45	67%	13%	1.15
TROY Offense	13	52%	38%	37.2	174.5	4.7	21	.12	2.71	79%	10%	1.1

Pass Game Stats (2019)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	13	50%	45%	23.3	36.3	281.5	7.8	12.1	28	10	.29	1.6	31%	34%	.4	6%	1.8
TROY Defense	13	46%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	18	.29	1.7	34%	33%	.35	7%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	13	43%	35%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.19	1.9	38%	31%	.28	7%	2.1
TROY Offense	13	46%	42%	19.1	28.7	215.3	7.5	11.3	25	8	.27	1.5	33%	26%	.23	5%	2.1

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2019 Talent Rating: #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Arkansas State's 2019 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2019 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.9 #76
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #49
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #102

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: Troy: 0.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -2.9 Troy: -4.4

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: 0.3 NR
Troy's Offense Rating: NR
Troy's Defense Rating: NR
2019 Talent Rating: #99
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Troy's 2019 Expected Record: -
Troy's 2019 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.4 #84
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #40
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.4 #110

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2019 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 25
Arkansas State 23

Projected Total Points: 48

Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.3
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.8

Troy's 2019 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Troy	10	Arkansas State	23	Troy -7.5	Arkansas State	52.5	Under
2024	10/26	Arkansas State	34	Troy	31	Arkansas State -8.5	Troy	50.0	Over
2023	10/07	Troy	37	Arkansas State	3	Troy -15.5	Troy	52.0	Under
2022	11/26	Arkansas State	19	Troy	48	Troy -13.5	Troy	43.5	Over
2020	10/31	Arkansas State	10	Troy	38	Arkansas State -3.5	Troy	0
2019	09/28	Troy	43	Arkansas State	50	Troy -7	Arkansas State	59.5	Over
2017	12/02	Arkansas State	25	Troy	32	Arkansas State -1	Troy	60.0	Under
2016	11/17	Troy	3	Arkansas State	35	Troy -8.5	Arkansas State	53.5	Under
2013	09/12	Arkansas State	41	Troy	34	Arkansas State -10	Troy	0
2012	11/17	Troy	34	Arkansas State	41
2011	12/03	Arkansas State	45	Troy	14
2010	09/25	Troy	35	Arkansas State	28
2009	09/26	Arkansas State	27	Troy	30
2008	12/06	Troy	35	Arkansas State	9
2007	10/27	Arkansas State	0	Troy	27
2006	11/18	Troy	26	Arkansas State	33
2005	11/12	Arkansas State	9	Troy	3
2004	10/16	Arkansas State	13	Troy	9

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Troy	8	6	3 Overs
Arkansas State	10	3	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 10	1 - 8	1 - 7	0 - 1
Road Teams	10 - 8	8 - 1	1 - 0	7 - 1

(#) ARST at (#) TROY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	TROY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#76	#84
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#95	#99
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Arkansas State Injury Report

Troy Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TROY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#49	#110
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TROY Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TROY Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Troy on Offense


CategoryCat	TROY Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#40	#102
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Troy Run Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Troy Pass Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TROY 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'19 Profile: Down to Average G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'19 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Troy -7.0 (59.5)
Arkansas State won at Troy this year (50-43)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Troy last year (23-10)
Arkansas State beat Troy in 2024 (34-31)
Troy beat Arkansas State in 2023 (37-3)

ARST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

TROY's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD