Texas State at App State - 2016 Matchup Preview

Texas State Bobcats at App State Mountaineers

Saturday, November 5th 2016 (3:30 PM EDT)
Appalachian State -30 (53.0) (0) Open: 0.0
App State 35 - Texas State: 10 (Sun Belt)

Bobcats (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (34 - 33 on Road)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TXST coming off BYE
APP is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -20 (SP+ APP -35)
Projected Score: TXST: 32 - APP: 28 (60)
APP Win prob: 99% | Cover: 54%
TXST Travel: 1035 miles, 1 hrs behind

Mountaineers (10 - 3) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (27 - 27 @ Home)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TXST Players
APP Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Texas State at Ohio	+19.0	58.5	W 56 - 54	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/17	Texas State at Arkansas	+32.5	59.5	L 3 - 42	U	N
Sat 9/24	Texas State vs Houston	+33.0	63.5	L 3 - 64	O	N
Sat 10/1	Texas State vs Incarnate Word	-17.0
Sat 10/8	Texas State at Georgia State	+8.5	58.0	L 21 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/15	Texas State at UL Monroe	+4.5	66.5	L 34 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/22	Texas State vs Louisiana	+11.5	65.0	L 3 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Texas State at App State	+30.0	53.0	L 10 - 35	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Texas State vs Idaho	+8.0	62.0	L 14 - 47	U	N
Sat 11/19	Texas State at New Mexico State	+6.5	66.0	L 10 - 50	U	N
Sat 11/26	Texas State vs Troy	+26.5	57.5	L 7 - 40	U	N
Sat 12/3	Texas State vs Arkansas State	+21.5	54.0	L 14 - 36	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

App State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	App State at Tennessee	+23.0	58.0	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/10	App State vs Old Dominion	-21.0	54.0	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/17	App State vs Miami	+4.0	50.5	L 10 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/24	App State at Akron	-7.0	56.0	W 45 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/1	App State vs Georgia State	-21.0	52.0	W 17 - 3	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/12	App State at Louisiana	-10.5	50.0	W 24 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/22	App State vs Idaho	-22.0	53.0	W 37 - 19	O	N
Thu 10/27	App State at Georgia Southern	-4.0	46.5	W 34 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/5	App State vs Texas State	-30.0	53.0	W 35 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/12	App State at Troy	+1.5	49.0	L 24 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/19	App State vs UL Monroe	-27.5	52.0	W 42 - 17	O	N
Sat 11/26	App State at New Mexico State	-17.0	60.0	W 37 - 7	U	Y
Sat 12/17	App State vs Toledo	+2.5	60.0	W 31 - 28	U	Y

Important Stats (2015)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	.13	42%	36.5	44%	2.75	187	38%	227	3.63	.33	49%	29	48%	48%	4.14	54	1.8	1.2
APP	.25	48%	24.2	46%	3.09	271	48%	196	4.29	.01	38%	29.8	37%	38%	2.5	56.8	1.7	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
APP		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2015

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	12	36.5	34.2	41.8%	3.63	1.8	21	415	187	227	4.8	52%	46%	44%	38%	2%	.13
APP Defense	13	29.8	26.7	38.5%	2.5	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	52%	46%	37%	38%	2%	.01

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	12	29	32.8	48.6%	4.14	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	58%	41%	48%	48%	3%	.33
APP Offense	13	24.2	27	47.5%	4.29	1.7	22	467	271	196	5.8	63%	35%	46%	48%	2%	.25

Additional Stats 2015

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	12	28:57	21.3	36%	62%	6.1	54	1.8	1.2	0	0	2	28.2
App State	13	31:17	22.5	43%	63%	6.5	56.8	1.7	1.8	0	0	3	31.4

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	12	52%	44%	39.2	187.3	4.8	24	.15	2.75	66%	0%	1.04
APP Defense	13	52%	37%	-	-	-	-	-.02	2.72	74%	0%	0.82

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	12	58%	48%	-	-	-	-	.23	3.24	69%	0%	1.05
APP Offense	13	63%	46%	46.5	271.5	5.8	25	.13	3.09	72%	0%	0.88

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	12	46%	38%	20.8	35.9	227.4	6.3	11	15	12	.11	1.6	34%	33%	.3	2%	1.9
APP Defense	13	46%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	18	.09	1.5	34%	29%	.19	2%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	12	41%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	.51	1.8	27%	44%	.59	3%	1.8
APP Offense	13	35%	48%	13.8	22.8	195.8	8.6	14.1	33	9	.47	1.9	30%	32%	.33	2%	1.9

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: NR
Texas State's Offense Rating: NR
Texas State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Texas State's 2016 Expected Record: -
Texas State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -25.5 #127
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.4 #120
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 42.5 #126

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: App State: 7.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -25.5 App State: 9.2

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: 7.1 NR
App State's Offense Rating: NR
App State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
App State's 2016 Expected Record: -
App State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.2 #43
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #61
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #23

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2016 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 32
App State 28

Projected Total Points: 60

App State Scoring
Offense: 24.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 27
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.7

App State's 2016 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2022	10/08	Texas State	36	App State	24	Appalachian State -19.5	Texas State	54.5	Over
2020	11/07	Texas State	17	App State	38	Appalachian State -21.5	Texas State	58.0	Under
2019	11/23	App State	35	Texas State	13	Appalachian State -28	Texas State	51.0	Under
2018	11/10	Texas State	7	App State	38	Appalachian State -18.5	App State	47.0	Under
2017	09/16	Texas State	13	App State	20	Appalachian State -21.5	Texas State	48.5	Under
2016	11/05	App State	35	Texas State	10	Appalachian State -30	Texas State	53.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
App State	5	1	1 Overs
Texas State	1	5	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 3	3 - 3	0 - 2	3 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 3	3 - 3	1 - 3	2 - 0

(#) TXST at (#) APP

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TXST	APP
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#127	#43
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#112	#119
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Texas State Injury Report

App State Injury Report

Texas State on Offense


CategoryCat	TXST Off	APP Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#120	#23
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas State Run Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	APP Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Texas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	APP Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

App State on Offense


CategoryCat	APP Off	TXST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#61	#126
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

App State Run Game


CategoryCat	APP Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

App State Pass Game


CategoryCat	APP Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
APP 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

TXST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kidd Brewer Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
App State -30.0 (53.0)
App State won vs Texas State this year (35-10)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

TXST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

APP's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View App State's Full Roster

APP's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD