Central Michigan at Northwestern Week 1 College Football Matchup Central Michigan at Northwestern Matchup - Week 1
Fri, Dec 26 2025 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Ford Field Detroit, MI · Turf · 65,000 cap
Central Michigan✈ 122 miSame TZ Northwestern✈ 238 mi+1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
7 34
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Central Michigan
16
Northwestern
29
P&R Line Northwestern -13
P&R Total O/U 44
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Northwestern -13.5 · O/U 43.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Northwestern, while Game Control favors Central Michigan. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Northwestern wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Central Michigan wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Northwestern -13.5
O/U 43.5
Draft Kings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Central Michigan · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Central Michigan 2025 Schedule
Central Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Central Michigan at San José State+11.5W16–1450.5W16–14UY
Sat 9/6Central Michigan at Pittsburgh+21.5L17–4548.5L17–45ON
Sat 9/13Central Michigan at Michigan+27.5L3–6342.5L3–63ON
Sat 9/20Central Michigan vs Wagner-29.0W49–1047.0W49–10OY
Sat 9/27Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan-3.0W24–1355.5W24–13UY
Sat 10/4Central Michigan at Akron-7.0L22–2847.5L22–28ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Central Michigan at Bowling Green+3.0W27–643.5W27–6UY
Sat 10/25Central Michigan vs Massachusetts-16.5W38–1346.5W38–13OY
Sat 11/1Central Michigan at Western Michigan+6.0L21–2443.5L21–24OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/12Central Michigan vs Buffalo-2.5W38–1944.5W38–19OY
Wed 11/19Central Michigan at Kent State-7.5W28–1650.5W28–16UY
Sat 11/29Central Michigan vs Toledo+11.5L3–2146.5L3–21UN
Fri 12/26Central Michigan vs Northwestern+13.5L7–3443.5L7–34UN
Northwestern 2025 Schedule
Northwestern's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Northwestern at Tulane+6.5L3–2347.5L3–23UN
Fri 9/5Northwestern vs Western Illinois-30.5W42–748.5W42–7OY
Sat 9/13Northwestern vs Oregon+25.5L14–3450.5L14–34UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Northwestern vs UCLA-6.0W17–1445.5W17–14UN
Sat 10/4Northwestern vs UL Monroe-12.5W42–743.5W42–7OY
Sat 10/11Northwestern at Penn State+20.5W22–2146.5W22–21UY
Sat 10/18Northwestern vs Purdue-3.0W19–047.5W19–0UY
Sat 10/25Northwestern at Nebraska+7.5L21–2844.5L21–28OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/7Northwestern at USC+14.5L17–3854.5L17–38ON
Sat 11/15Northwestern vs Michigan+10.0L22–2441.5L22–24OY
Sat 11/22Northwestern vs Minnesota-4.0W38–3541.0W38–35ON
Sat 11/29Northwestern at Illinois+7.0L13–2044.5L13–20UY
Fri 12/26Northwestern vs Central Michigan-13.5W34–743.5W34–7UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Central Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Central Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Central Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Central Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Central Michigan #71
+0.342
Northwestern #83
+0.251
Central Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Central Michigan #22
+0.635
Northwestern #85
+0.405
Central Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Central Michigan #42
0.169
Northwestern #83
0.150
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Central Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Central Michigan #80
+6.971
Northwestern #116
+6.346
Central Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Central Michigan #89
+0.863
Northwestern #57
+0.828
Central Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Central Michigan #68
71.0
Northwestern #82
71.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Central Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Northwestern Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Central Michigan
-4.9
Northwestern
-0.6
Offense Rating
Central Michigan
15.1
Northwestern
16.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Central Michigan
20.0
Northwestern
16.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Northwestern Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Central Michigan #134
0.91
Northwestern #26
1.64
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Central Michigan #113
1.00
Northwestern #44
0.73
Northwestern +0.73
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Central Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Central Michigan #1
54.6
Northwestern #1
40.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Central Michigan #53
31.6
Northwestern #77
43.5
Central Michigan +14.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Northwestern
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Northwestern
73.4 — 7.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Northwestern won by 27
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Central Michigan
Matt Drinkall #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jim Chapin Yr 1 #1
DC Sean Cronin Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Northwestern
David Braun #1
12–13 (48%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Zach Lujan Yr 2 #1
DC Tim McGarigle Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself