Kent State at Toledo Week 8 College Football Matchup Kent State at Toledo Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 18 2025 · Week 8 · 🏟 Glass Bowl Toledo, OH · Turf · 26,248 cap
Kent State✈ 124 miSame TZ
10 45
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kent State
11
Toledo
40
P&R Line Toledo -28.5
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Toledo -25.5 · O/U 48.5
Matchup Prediction
Toledo has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Toledo entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Toledo wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Toledo wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Toledo -25.5
O/U 48.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Toledo · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kent State 2025 Schedule
Kent State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Kent State vs Merrimack-5.5W21–1750.5W21–17UN
Sat 9/6Kent State at Texas Tech+48.5L14–6260.0L14–62OY
Sat 9/13Kent State vs Buffalo+23.5L28–3148.5L28–31OY
Sat 9/20Kent State at Florida State+44.5L10–6656.5L10–66ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Kent State at Oklahoma+46.5L0–4453.5L0–44UY
Sat 10/11Kent State vs Massachusetts-1.5W42–649.5W42–6UY
Sat 10/18Kent State at Toledo+25.5L10–4548.5L10–45ON
Sat 10/25Kent State vs Bowling Green+7.5W24–2147.5W24–21UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/5Kent State at Ball State+3.0L13–1748.5L13–17UN
Tue 11/11Kent State at Akron+7.5W42–3549.5W42–35OY
Wed 11/19Kent State vs Central Michigan+7.5L16–2850.5L16–28UN
Fri 11/28Kent State at Northern Illinois+5.0W35–3145.0W35–31OY
Toledo 2025 Schedule
Toledo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Toledo at Kentucky+10.0L16–2448.5L16–24UY
Sat 9/6Toledo vs Western Kentucky-8.5W45–2157.5W45–21OY
Sat 9/13Toledo vs Morgan State-33.5W60–054.5W60–0OY
Sat 9/20Toledo at Western Michigan-13.5L13–1448.5L13–14UN
Sat 9/27Toledo vs Akron-21.5W45–350.5W45–3UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Toledo at Bowling Green-10.5L23–2845.5L23–28ON
Sat 10/18Toledo vs Kent State-25.5W45–1048.5W45–10OY
Sat 10/25Toledo at Washington State-1.5L7–2844.5L7–28UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/5Toledo vs Northern Illinois-14.5W42–342.5W42–3OY
Wed 11/12Toledo at Miami (OH)-6.5W24–344.5W24–3UY
Sat 11/22Toledo vs Ball State-29.5W38–945.5W38–9ON
Sat 11/29Toledo at Central Michigan-11.5W21–346.5W21–3UY
Tue 12/23Toledo vs Louisville+12.5L22–2744.5L22–27OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Toledo PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Toledo
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Toledo
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Toledo
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kent State #112
+0.020
Toledo #63
+0.377
Toledo Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kent State #49
+0.210
Toledo #55
+0.546
Toledo Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kent State #107
0.138
Toledo #5
0.202
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Toledo Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kent State #98
+5.867
Toledo #55
+8.146
Toledo Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kent State #126
+0.697
Toledo #53
+0.865
Toledo Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kent State #85
71.6
Toledo #22
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Toledo Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Toledo Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kent State
-16.7
Toledo
1.8
Offense Rating
Kent State
7.5
Toledo
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kent State
24.2
Toledo
13.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Toledo Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kent State #87
0.80
Toledo #41
1.20
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kent State #135
3.40
Toledo #16
0.40
Toledo +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Toledo Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kent State #1
35.9
Toledo #1
69.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kent State #114
55.1
Toledo #31
22.5
Toledo +33.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Toledo
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Toledo
53.2 — 26.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Toledo won by 35
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Toledo with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kent State
Kenni Burns #1
1–23 (4%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Mark Carney Yr 2 #1
DC Kody Morgan Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Toledo
Jason Candle #1
72–40 (64%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Mike Hallett Yr 3 #1
DC Vince Kehres Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself