Sat, Sep 20 2025
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Tallahassee, FL
·
Turf
·
79,560 cap
Kent State✈ 758 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Florida State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Florida State entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Florida State wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Florida State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Florida State -44.5
O/U 56.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Florida State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kent State 2025 Schedule
Kent State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Kent State vs Merrimack | -5.5W21–17 | 50.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Kent State at Texas Tech | +48.5L14–62 | 60.0 | L14–62 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Kent State vs Buffalo | +23.5L28–31 | 48.5 | L28–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Kent State at Florida State | +44.5L10–66 | 56.5 | L10–66 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Kent State at Oklahoma | +46.5L0–44 | 53.5 | L0–44 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Kent State vs Massachusetts | -1.5W42–6 | 49.5 | W42–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Kent State at Toledo | +25.5L10–45 | 48.5 | L10–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Kent State vs Bowling Green | +7.5W24–21 | 47.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/5 | Kent State at Ball State | +3.0L13–17 | 48.5 | L13–17 | U | N |
| Tue 11/11 | Kent State at Akron | +7.5W42–35 | 49.5 | W42–35 | O | Y |
| Wed 11/19 | Kent State vs Central Michigan | +7.5L16–28 | 50.5 | L16–28 | U | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Kent State at Northern Illinois | +5.0W35–31 | 45.0 | W35–31 | O | Y |
Florida State 2025 Schedule
Florida State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Florida State vs Alabama | +13.5W31–17 | 50.5 | W31–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Florida State vs East Texas A&M | -43.5W77–3 | 56.5 | W77–3 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Florida State vs Kent State | -44.5W66–10 | 56.5 | W66–10 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/26 | Florida State at Virginia | -7.0L38–46 | 59.5 | L38–46 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Florida State vs Miami | +3.5L22–28 | 54.5 | L22–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Florida State vs Pittsburgh | -10.5L31–34 | 56.5 | L31–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Florida State at Stanford | -17.5L13–20 | 55.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Florida State vs Wake Forest | -12.5W42–7 | 50.5 | W42–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Florida State at Clemson | +1.5L10–24 | 56.5 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Florida State vs Virginia Tech | -13.5W34–14 | 53.5 | W34–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/21 | Florida State at NC State | -7.0L11–21 | 58.5 | L11–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Florida State at Florida | -1.5L21–40 | 48.5 | L21–40 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Florida State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Florida State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida State Edge
Florida State +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida State Edge
Florida State +44.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida State
6 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Florida State
97.5 — 1.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Florida State won by 56
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Florida State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Kent State
Kenni Burns #1
1–23 (4%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Mark Carney
Yr 2
#1
DC
Kody Morgan
Yr 1
#1
Florida State
Mike Norvell #1
33–27 (55%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Gus Malzahn
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tony White
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓