Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Tulsa,
while Game Control favors Memphis.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Tulsa wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Memphis wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Memphis -21
O/U 54.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Memphis
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Tulsa 2025 Schedule
Tulsa's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Tulsa vs Abilene Christian | -5.0W35–7 | 59.5 | W35–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Tulsa at New Mexico State | -3.0L14–21 | 52.5 | L14–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Tulsa vs Navy | +14.0L23–42 | 52.5 | L23–42 | O | N |
| Fri 9/19 | Tulsa at Oklahoma State | +10.5W19–12 | 54.5 | W19–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Tulsa vs Tulane | +14.5L14–31 | 52.5 | L14–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Tulsa at Memphis | +21.0L7–45 | 54.5 | L7–45 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/16 | Tulsa at East Carolina | +16.5L27–41 | 54.5 | L27–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Tulsa vs Temple | +4.5L37–38 | 52.5 | L37–38 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Tulsa at Florida Atlantic | +4.5L21–40 | 60.5 | L21–40 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Tulsa vs Oregon State | -1.5W31–14 | 50.5 | W31–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Tulsa at Army | +10.0W26–25 | 43.5 | W26–25 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Tulsa vs UAB | -9.0L24–31 | 56.5 | L24–31 | U | N |
Memphis 2025 Schedule
Memphis's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Memphis vs Chattanooga | -30.5W45–10 | 55.5 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Memphis at Georgia State | -14.5W38–16 | 57.5 | W38–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Memphis at Troy | -4.5W28–7 | 51.5 | W28–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Memphis vs Arkansas | +7.0W32–31 | 59.5 | W32–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Memphis at Florida Atlantic | -14.0W55–26 | 62.5 | W55–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Memphis vs Tulsa | -21.0W45–7 | 54.5 | W45–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/18 | Memphis at UAB | -23.5L24–31 | 59.5 | L24–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Memphis vs South Florida | +3.5W34–31 | 58.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/31 | Memphis at Rice | -13.5W38–14 | 48.5 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/7 | Memphis vs Tulane | -3.0L32–38 | 53.5 | L32–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Memphis at East Carolina | +3.0L27–31 | 56.5 | L27–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/27 | Memphis vs Navy | -3.5L17–28 | 57.5 | L17–28 | U | N |
| Fri 12/19 | Memphis vs NC State | +6.0L7–31 | 56.5 | L7–31 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Memphis
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Memphis
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Memphis
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Tulsa Edge
Tulsa +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Memphis Edge
Memphis +16.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Memphis
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Memphis
92.2 — 4.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Memphis won by 38
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Tulsa
Tre Lamb #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Ty Darlington
Yr 1
#1
DC
Mike Gray
Yr 1
#1
Memphis
Ryan Silverfield #1
41–21 (66%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Tim Cramsey
Yr 3
#1
DC
Jordon Hankins
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓