Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Arkansas,
while Game Control favors Memphis.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Arkansas wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Memphis wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Arkansas -7
O/U 59.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Memphis
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Arkansas 2025 Schedule
Arkansas's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Arkansas vs Alabama A&M | -45.5W52–7 | 62.5 | W52–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Arkansas vs Arkansas State | -23.5W56–14 | 62.0 | W56–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Arkansas at Ole Miss | +3.5L35–41 | 60.5 | L35–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Arkansas at Memphis | -7.0L31–32 | 59.5 | L31–32 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Arkansas vs Notre Dame | +5.5L13–56 | 64.5 | L13–56 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Arkansas at Tennessee | +10.0L31–34 | 68.5 | L31–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Arkansas vs Texas A&M | +7.5L42–45 | 57.5 | L42–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Arkansas vs Auburn | -2.5L24–33 | 55.5 | L24–33 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Arkansas vs Mississippi State | -5.5L35–38 | 66.5 | L35–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Arkansas at LSU | +4.0L22–23 | 58.5 | L22–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Arkansas at Texas | +10.5L37–52 | 57.5 | L37–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Arkansas vs Missouri | +4.5L17–31 | 54.5 | L17–31 | U | N |
Memphis 2025 Schedule
Memphis's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Memphis vs Chattanooga | -30.5W45–10 | 55.5 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Memphis at Georgia State | -14.5W38–16 | 57.5 | W38–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Memphis at Troy | -4.5W28–7 | 51.5 | W28–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Memphis vs Arkansas | +7.0W32–31 | 59.5 | W32–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Memphis at Florida Atlantic | -14.0W55–26 | 62.5 | W55–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Memphis vs Tulsa | -21.0W45–7 | 54.5 | W45–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/18 | Memphis at UAB | -23.5L24–31 | 59.5 | L24–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Memphis vs South Florida | +3.5W34–31 | 58.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/31 | Memphis at Rice | -13.5W38–14 | 48.5 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/7 | Memphis vs Tulane | -3.0L32–38 | 53.5 | L32–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Memphis at East Carolina | +3.0L27–31 | 56.5 | L27–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/27 | Memphis vs Navy | -3.5L17–28 | 57.5 | L17–28 | U | N |
| Fri 12/19 | Memphis vs NC State | +6.0L7–31 | 56.5 | L7–31 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Memphis
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Memphis
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Memphis
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arkansas Edge
Arkansas +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Memphis Edge
Memphis +8.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arkansas
Sam Pittman #1
29–31 (48%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Bobby Petrino
Yr 2
#1
DC
Travis Williams
Yr 3
#1
Memphis
Ryan Silverfield #1
41–21 (66%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Tim Cramsey
Yr 3
#1
DC
Jordon Hankins
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓