Tue, Dec 23 2025
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Caesers Superdome
New Orleans, LA
·
Turf
·
76,468 cap
Western Kentucky✈ 528 miSame TZ
Southern Miss✈ 105 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Western Kentucky,
while Game Control favors Southern Miss.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Western Kentucky wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Southern Miss wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Southern Miss -3.0
O/U 59.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Western Kentucky 2025 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/23 | Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston | -9.5W41–24 | 60.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 8/30 | Western Kentucky vs North Alabama | -27.5W55–6 | 60.5 | W55–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Western Kentucky at Toledo | +8.5L21–45 | 57.5 | L21–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Western Kentucky vs Nevada | -8.5W31–16 | 54.5 | W31–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Western Kentucky at Missouri State | -3.5W27–22 | 59.5 | W27–22 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/3 | Western Kentucky at Delaware | +2.5W27–24 | 62.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/14 | Western Kentucky vs Florida International | -9.5L6–25 | 55.5 | L6–25 | U | N |
| Tue 10/21 | Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech | +5.5W28–27 | 49.5 | W28–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State | -7.5W35–16 | 53.5 | W35–16 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee | -13.5W42–26 | 51.5 | W42–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Western Kentucky at LSU | +24.5L10–13 | 52.0 | L10–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State | -1.5L34–37 | 56.5 | L34–37 | O | N |
| Tue 12/23 | Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss | +3.0W27–16 | 59.0 | W27–16 | U | Y |
Southern Miss 2025 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Southern Miss vs Mississippi State | +11.5L17–34 | 59.5 | L17–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Southern Miss vs Jackson State | -13.5W38–20 | 53.0 | W38–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Southern Miss vs App State | +3.0W38–22 | 55.5 | W38–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech | +3.0L20–30 | 51.5 | L20–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Southern Miss vs Jacksonville State | -4.5W42–25 | 55.5 | W42–25 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/9 | Southern Miss at Georgia Southern | -3.0W38–35 | 59.5 | W38–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Southern Miss at Louisiana | -4.5W22–10 | 54.5 | W22–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Southern Miss vs UL Monroe | -14.0W49–21 | 48.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Southern Miss at Arkansas State | -6.5W27–21 | 54.5 | W27–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Southern Miss vs Texas State | -3.0L14–41 | 65.5 | L14–41 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Southern Miss at South Alabama | -2.5L35–42 | 53.0 | L35–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Southern Miss vs Troy | -6.5L18–28 | 50.5 | L18–28 | U | N |
| Tue 12/23 | Southern Miss vs Western Kentucky | -3.0L16–27 | 59.0 | L16–27 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Western Kentucky Edge
Western Kentucky +0.73
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Southern Miss Edge
Southern Miss +0.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Southern Miss
3 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Southern Miss
52.0 — 24.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Western Kentucky won by 11
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
48–31 (61%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Will Friend
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tyson Summers
Yr 3
#1
Southern Miss
Charles Huff #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Blake Anderson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jason Semore
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓