Sat, Nov 22 2025
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Tiger Stadium
Baton Rouge, LA
·
Turf
·
102,321 cap
Western Kentucky✈ 528 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Western Kentucky
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Western Kentucky entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Western Kentucky wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Western Kentucky wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
LSU -24.5
O/U 52.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Western Kentucky
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Western Kentucky 2025 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/23 | Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston | -9.5W41–24 | 60.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 8/30 | Western Kentucky vs North Alabama | -27.5W55–6 | 60.5 | W55–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Western Kentucky at Toledo | +8.5L21–45 | 57.5 | L21–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Western Kentucky vs Nevada | -8.5W31–16 | 54.5 | W31–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Western Kentucky at Missouri State | -3.5W27–22 | 59.5 | W27–22 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/3 | Western Kentucky at Delaware | +2.5W27–24 | 62.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/14 | Western Kentucky vs Florida International | -9.5L6–25 | 55.5 | L6–25 | U | N |
| Tue 10/21 | Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech | +5.5W28–27 | 49.5 | W28–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State | -7.5W35–16 | 53.5 | W35–16 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee | -13.5W42–26 | 51.5 | W42–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Western Kentucky at LSU | +24.5L10–13 | 52.0 | L10–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State | -1.5L34–37 | 56.5 | L34–37 | O | N |
| Tue 12/23 | Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss | +3.0W27–16 | 59.0 | W27–16 | U | Y |
LSU 2025 Schedule
LSU's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | LSU at Clemson | +3.5W17–10 | 57.5 | W17–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | LSU vs Louisiana Tech | -36.5W23–7 | 49.5 | W23–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | LSU vs Florida | -5.5W20–10 | 47.5 | W20–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | LSU vs SE Louisiana | -49.0W56–10 | 60.0 | W56–10 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | LSU at Ole Miss | +2.5L19–24 | 57.5 | L19–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | LSU vs South Carolina | -8.5W20–10 | 44.5 | W20–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | LSU at Vanderbilt | +1.5L24–31 | 48.5 | L24–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | LSU vs Texas A&M | +1.5L25–49 | 50.5 | L25–49 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | LSU at Alabama | +10.5L9–20 | 49.5 | L9–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | LSU vs Arkansas | -4.0W23–22 | 58.5 | W23–22 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | LSU vs Western Kentucky | -24.5W13–10 | 52.0 | W13–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | LSU at Oklahoma | +11.5L13–17 | 36.5 | L13–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/27 | LSU vs Houston | +1.5L35–38 | 43.5 | L35–38 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Western Kentucky
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Western Kentucky Edge
Western Kentucky +0.78
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Western Kentucky Edge
Western Kentucky +6.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Western Kentucky. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
48–31 (61%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Will Friend
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tyson Summers
Yr 3
#1
LSU
Brian Kelly #1
28–11 (72%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Joe Sloan
Yr 2
#1
DC
Blake Baker
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓