Sat, Oct 25 2025
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Foreman Field
Norfolk, VA
·
Turf
·
20,118 cap
App State✈ 302 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Old Dominion,
while Game Control favors App State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Old Dominion wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
App State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Old Dominion -12.5
O/U 60.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Old Dominion
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
App State 2025 Schedule
App State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | App State vs Charlotte | -8.5W34–11 | 53.5 | W34–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | App State vs Lindenwood | -31.5W20–13 | 56.0 | W20–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | App State at Southern Miss | -3.0L22–38 | 55.5 | L22–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | App State at Boise State | +16.5L14–47 | 59.5 | L14–47 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | App State vs Oregon State | -1.5W27–23 | 53.5 | W27–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | App State at Georgia State | -3.0W41–20 | 55.5 | W41–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | App State vs Coastal Carolina | -10.5L37–45 | 48.5 | L37–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | App State at Old Dominion | +12.5L21–24 | 60.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/6 | App State vs Georgia Southern | -4.5L23–25 | 62.5 | L23–25 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | App State at James Madison | +21.0L10–58 | 53.5 | L10–58 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | App State vs Marshall | +3.5W26–24 | 57.5 | W26–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | App State vs Arkansas State | -1.0L29–30 | 54.5 | L29–30 | O | N |
| Mon 12/29 | App State vs Georgia Southern | +10.0L10–29 | 58.5 | L10–29 | U | N |
Old Dominion 2025 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Old Dominion at Indiana | +23.5L14–27 | 54.5 | L14–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Old Dominion vs North Carolina Central | -22.0W54–6 | 50.5 | W54–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Old Dominion at Virginia Tech | +5.5W45–26 | 50.5 | W45–26 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Old Dominion vs Liberty | -14.5W21–7 | 53.5 | W21–7 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Old Dominion vs Coastal Carolina | -18.5W47–7 | 53.5 | W47–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Old Dominion at Marshall | -14.5L24–48 | 57.5 | L24–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Old Dominion at James Madison | +3.0L27–63 | 47.5 | L27–63 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Old Dominion vs App State | -12.5W24–21 | 60.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Old Dominion at UL Monroe | -16.5W31–6 | 55.5 | W31–6 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/13 | Old Dominion vs Troy | -9.5W33–0 | 53.5 | W33–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Old Dominion at Georgia Southern | -10.0W45–10 | 62.0 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Old Dominion vs Georgia State | -29.0W27–10 | 58.5 | W27–10 | U | N |
| Wed 12/17 | Old Dominion vs South Florida | +4.0W24–10 | 52.5 | W24–10 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Old Dominion
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Old Dominion
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Old Dominion
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Old Dominion Edge
Old Dominion +0.83
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
App State Edge
App State +6.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Old Dominion
86.1 — 7.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Old Dominion won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
App State
Dowell Loggains #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Vacant
Yr 1
#1
DC
D. J. Smith
Yr 1
#1
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
20–30 (40%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Kevin Decker
Yr 3
#1
DC
Blake Seiler
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓