Sat, Oct 18 2025
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Bridgeforth Stadium
Harrisonburg, VA
·
Turf
·
24,878 cap
Old Dominion✈ 176 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Old Dominion
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Old Dominion entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Old Dominion wins
Solid
Game Control
58.3%
Old Dominion wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
James Madison -3
O/U 47.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Old Dominion 2025 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Old Dominion at Indiana | +23.5L14–27 | 54.5 | L14–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Old Dominion vs North Carolina Central | -22.0W54–6 | 50.5 | W54–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Old Dominion at Virginia Tech | +5.5W45–26 | 50.5 | W45–26 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Old Dominion vs Liberty | -14.5W21–7 | 53.5 | W21–7 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Old Dominion vs Coastal Carolina | -18.5W47–7 | 53.5 | W47–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Old Dominion at Marshall | -14.5L24–48 | 57.5 | L24–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Old Dominion at James Madison | +3.0L27–63 | 47.5 | L27–63 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Old Dominion vs App State | -12.5W24–21 | 60.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Old Dominion at UL Monroe | -16.5W31–6 | 55.5 | W31–6 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/13 | Old Dominion vs Troy | -9.5W33–0 | 53.5 | W33–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Old Dominion at Georgia Southern | -10.0W45–10 | 62.0 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Old Dominion vs Georgia State | -29.0W27–10 | 58.5 | W27–10 | U | N |
| Wed 12/17 | Old Dominion vs South Florida | +4.0W24–10 | 52.5 | W24–10 | U | Y |
James Madison 2025 Schedule
James Madison's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | James Madison vs Weber State | -26.5W45–10 | 54.5 | W45–10 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/5 | James Madison at Louisville | +15.0L14–28 | 57.0 | L14–28 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | James Madison at Liberty | -7.5W31–13 | 46.5 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | James Madison vs Georgia Southern | -14.5W35–10 | 54.5 | W35–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | James Madison at Georgia State | -19.5W14–7 | 52.5 | W14–7 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | James Madison vs Louisiana | -18.5W24–14 | 44.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | James Madison vs Old Dominion | -3.0W63–27 | 47.5 | W63–27 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/28 | James Madison at Texas State | -7.5W52–20 | 55.5 | W52–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | James Madison at Marshall | -13.5W35–23 | 53.5 | W35–23 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | James Madison vs App State | -21.0W58–10 | 53.5 | W58–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | James Madison vs Washington State | -15.0W24–20 | 44.5 | W24–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | James Madison at Coastal Carolina | -24.0W59–10 | 54.5 | W59–10 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/5 | James Madison vs Troy | -24.5W31–14 | 47.5 | W31–14 | U | N |
| Sat 12/20 | James Madison at Oregon | +22.5L34–51 | 47.5 | L34–51 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Old Dominion Edge
Old Dominion +1.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Old Dominion Edge
Old Dominion +4.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
James Madison
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
James Madison
53.7 — 22.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
James Madison won by 36
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Old Dominion, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
20–30 (40%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Kevin Decker
Yr 3
#1
DC
Blake Seiler
Yr 3
#1
James Madison
Bob Chesney #1
8–4 (67%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Dean Kennedy
Yr 2
#1
DC
Lyle Hemphill
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓