Sat, Oct 11 2025
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Huntington, WV
·
Turf
·
38,019 cap
Old Dominion✈ 350 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Old Dominion
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Old Dominion entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Old Dominion wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Old Dominion wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Old Dominion -14.5
O/U 57.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Old Dominion
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Old Dominion 2025 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Old Dominion at Indiana | +23.5L14–27 | 54.5 | L14–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Old Dominion vs North Carolina Central | -22.0W54–6 | 50.5 | W54–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Old Dominion at Virginia Tech | +5.5W45–26 | 50.5 | W45–26 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Old Dominion vs Liberty | -14.5W21–7 | 53.5 | W21–7 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Old Dominion vs Coastal Carolina | -18.5W47–7 | 53.5 | W47–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Old Dominion at Marshall | -14.5L24–48 | 57.5 | L24–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Old Dominion at James Madison | +3.0L27–63 | 47.5 | L27–63 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Old Dominion vs App State | -12.5W24–21 | 60.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Old Dominion at UL Monroe | -16.5W31–6 | 55.5 | W31–6 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/13 | Old Dominion vs Troy | -9.5W33–0 | 53.5 | W33–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Old Dominion at Georgia Southern | -10.0W45–10 | 62.0 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Old Dominion vs Georgia State | -29.0W27–10 | 58.5 | W27–10 | U | N |
| Wed 12/17 | Old Dominion vs South Florida | +4.0W24–10 | 52.5 | W24–10 | U | Y |
Marshall 2025 Schedule
Marshall's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Marshall at Georgia | +39.5L7–45 | 55.5 | L7–45 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Marshall vs Missouri State | -7.0L20–21 | 53.5 | L20–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Marshall vs Eastern Kentucky | -14.5W38–7 | 49.5 | W38–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Marshall at Middle Tennessee | -2.5W42–28 | 46.5 | W42–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Marshall at Louisiana | -2.5L51–54 | 47.5 | L51–54 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Marshall vs Old Dominion | +14.5W48–24 | 57.5 | W48–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Marshall vs Texas State | +3.0W40–37 | 65.5 | W40–37 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/30 | Marshall at Coastal Carolina | -7.5L27–44 | 55.5 | L27–44 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Marshall vs James Madison | +13.5L23–35 | 53.5 | L23–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Marshall at Georgia State | -9.5W30–18 | 59.5 | W30–18 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Marshall at App State | -3.5L24–26 | 57.5 | L24–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Marshall vs Georgia Southern | -10.5L19–24 | 61.5 | L19–24 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Old Dominion
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Old Dominion
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Old Dominion
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Old Dominion Edge
Old Dominion +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Old Dominion Edge
Old Dominion +22.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Marshall
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Marshall
86.0 — 5.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Marshall won by 24
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Old Dominion with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
20–30 (40%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Kevin Decker
Yr 3
#1
DC
Blake Seiler
Yr 3
#1
Marshall
Tony Gibson #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Rod Smith
Yr 1
#1
DC
Shannon Morrison
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓