Colgate at Syracuse Week 3 College Football Matchup Colgate at Syracuse Matchup - Week 3
Fri, Sep 12 2025 · Week 3 · 🏟 Carrier Dome Syracuse, NY · Turf · 49,250 cap
Away
24 66
Final
Home
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available. Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance. Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Colgate
40
COLG +37.5
Syracuse
29
P&R Line Colgate -10.5
P&R Total O/U 68.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Syracuse -37.5 · O/U 64.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
76%
Syracuse wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Syracuse -37.5
O/U 64.5
ESPN Bet
🏠 Syracuse 2nd straight Home Game
Colgate 2025 Schedule
Colgate's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
— Bye Week —
Fri 9/12Colgate at Syracuse+37.5L24–6664.5L24–66ON
Syracuse 2025 Schedule
Syracuse's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Syracuse vs Tennessee+13.5L26–4553.5L26–45ON
Sat 9/6Syracuse vs UConn-7.0W27–2057.5W27–20UN
Fri 9/12Syracuse vs Colgate-37.5W66–2464.5W66–24OY
Sat 9/20Syracuse at Clemson+17.5W34–2153.5W34–21OY
Sat 9/27Syracuse vs Duke+4.0L3–3859.5L3–38UN
Sat 10/4Syracuse at SMU+17.5L18–3156.5L18–31UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Syracuse vs Pittsburgh+9.5L13–3054.5L13–30UN
Sat 10/25Syracuse at Georgia Tech+17.5L16–4152.5L16–41ON
Fri 10/31Syracuse vs North Carolina-1.5L10–2745.5L10–27UN
Sat 11/8Syracuse at Miami+28.5L10–3847.5L10–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Syracuse at Notre Dame+36.5L7–7051.5L7–70ON
Sat 11/29Syracuse vs Boston College+2.5L12–3454.5L12–34UN
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Colgate Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Colgate
0.00
Syracuse #4
1.58
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Colgate
0.00
Syracuse #32
0.75
Colgate +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Syracuse Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Colgate #83
27.5
Syracuse #22
49.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Colgate #123
58.3
Syracuse #54
34.1
Syracuse +22.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself