Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Tennessee -13.5
O/U 53.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Tennessee
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Syracuse 2025 Schedule
Syracuse's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Syracuse vs Tennessee | +13.5L26–45 | 53.5 | L26–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Syracuse vs UConn | -7.0W27–20 | 57.5 | W27–20 | U | N |
| Fri 9/12 | Syracuse vs Colgate | -37.5W66–24 | 64.5 | W66–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Syracuse at Clemson | +17.5W34–21 | 53.5 | W34–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Syracuse vs Duke | +4.0L3–38 | 59.5 | L3–38 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Syracuse at SMU | +17.5L18–31 | 56.5 | L18–31 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/18 | Syracuse vs Pittsburgh | +9.5L13–30 | 54.5 | L13–30 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Syracuse at Georgia Tech | +17.5L16–41 | 52.5 | L16–41 | O | N |
| Fri 10/31 | Syracuse vs North Carolina | -1.5L10–27 | 45.5 | L10–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Syracuse at Miami | +28.5L10–38 | 47.5 | L10–38 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | Syracuse at Notre Dame | +36.5L7–70 | 51.5 | L7–70 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Syracuse vs Boston College | +2.5L12–34 | 54.5 | L12–34 | U | N |
Tennessee 2025 Schedule
Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Tennessee vs Syracuse | -13.5W45–26 | 53.5 | W45–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Tennessee vs East Tennessee State | -39.5W72–17 | 58.5 | W72–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Tennessee vs Georgia | +3.5L41–44 | 50.5 | L41–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Tennessee vs UAB | -39.5W56–24 | 69.5 | W56–24 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Tennessee at Mississippi State | -7.5W41–34 | 63.5 | W41–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Tennessee vs Arkansas | -10.0W34–31 | 68.5 | W34–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Tennessee at Alabama | +8.5L20–37 | 60.5 | L20–37 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Tennessee at Kentucky | -7.5W56–34 | 55.5 | W56–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Tennessee vs Oklahoma | -3.0L27–33 | 55.5 | L27–33 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Tennessee vs New Mexico State | -41.5W42–9 | 59.5 | W42–9 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Tennessee at Florida | -3.5W31–11 | 57.5 | W31–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Tennessee vs Vanderbilt | -2.0L24–45 | 66.5 | L24–45 | O | N |
| Tue 12/30 | Tennessee vs Illinois | -3.0L28–30 | 62.5 | L28–30 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Tennessee
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Tennessee
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Tennessee
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Syracuse Edge
Syracuse +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Syracuse Edge
Syracuse +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tennessee
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Tennessee
97.4 — 1.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Tennessee won by 19
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Tennessee, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Syracuse
Fran Brown #1
9–3 (75%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jeff Nixon
Yr 1
#1
DC
Elijah Robinson
Yr 2
#1
Tennessee
Josh Heupel #1
37–14 (73%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Joey Halzle
Yr 3
#1
DC
Tim Banks
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓