Sat, Nov 29 2025
·
Week 14
·
🏟 Carrier Dome
Syracuse, NY
·
Turf
·
49,250 cap
Boston College✈ 257 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Boston College
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Boston College entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Boston College wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Boston College wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Boston College -2.5
O/U 54.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Boston College
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Boston College 2025 Schedule
Boston College's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Boston College vs Fordham | -35.0W66–10 | 53.5 | W66–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Boston College at Michigan State | +3.5L40–42 | 45.5 | L40–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Boston College at Stanford | -14.0L20–30 | 44.5 | L20–30 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Boston College vs California | -6.0L24–28 | 54.5 | L24–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Boston College at Pittsburgh | +6.5L7–48 | 54.5 | L7–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Boston College vs Clemson | +14.0L10–41 | 54.5 | L10–41 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Boston College vs UConn | +2.5L23–38 | 58.5 | L23–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Boston College at Louisville | +25.5L24–38 | 54.5 | L24–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Boston College vs Notre Dame | +31.5L10–25 | 55.5 | L10–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Boston College vs SMU | +10.5L13–45 | 54.5 | L13–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Boston College vs Georgia Tech | +16.5L34–36 | 61.5 | L34–36 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/29 | Boston College at Syracuse | -2.5W34–12 | 54.5 | W34–12 | U | Y |
Syracuse 2025 Schedule
Syracuse's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Syracuse vs Tennessee | +13.5L26–45 | 53.5 | L26–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Syracuse vs UConn | -7.0W27–20 | 57.5 | W27–20 | U | N |
| Fri 9/12 | Syracuse vs Colgate | -37.5W66–24 | 64.5 | W66–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Syracuse at Clemson | +17.5W34–21 | 53.5 | W34–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Syracuse vs Duke | +4.0L3–38 | 59.5 | L3–38 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Syracuse at SMU | +17.5L18–31 | 56.5 | L18–31 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/18 | Syracuse vs Pittsburgh | +9.5L13–30 | 54.5 | L13–30 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Syracuse at Georgia Tech | +17.5L16–41 | 52.5 | L16–41 | O | N |
| Fri 10/31 | Syracuse vs North Carolina | -1.5L10–27 | 45.5 | L10–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Syracuse at Miami | +28.5L10–38 | 47.5 | L10–38 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | Syracuse at Notre Dame | +36.5L7–70 | 51.5 | L7–70 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Syracuse vs Boston College | +2.5L12–34 | 54.5 | L12–34 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Boston College
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Boston College Edge
Boston College +0.30
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Boston College Edge
Boston College +2.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Boston College
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Boston College
20.4 — 54.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Boston College won by 22
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Boston College, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Boston College
Bill O'Brien #1
7–5 (58%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Will Lawing
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tim Lewis
Yr 2
#1
Syracuse
Fran Brown #1
9–3 (75%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jeff Nixon
Yr 1
#1
DC
Elijah Robinson
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓