Sat, Sep 6 2025
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Week 2
·
🏟 Neyland Stadium
Knoxville, TN
·
Turf
·
102,455 cap
East Tennessee State✈ 89 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Tennessee wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Tennessee -39.5
O/U 58.5
Bovada
East Tennessee State 2025 Schedule
East Tennessee State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/6 | East Tennessee State at Tennessee | +39.5L17–72 | 58.5 | L17–72 | O | N |
Tennessee 2025 Schedule
Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Tennessee vs Syracuse | -13.5W45–26 | 53.5 | W45–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Tennessee vs East Tennessee State | -39.5W72–17 | 58.5 | W72–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Tennessee vs Georgia | +3.5L41–44 | 50.5 | L41–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Tennessee vs UAB | -39.5W56–24 | 69.5 | W56–24 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Tennessee at Mississippi State | -7.5W41–34 | 63.5 | W41–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Tennessee vs Arkansas | -10.0W34–31 | 68.5 | W34–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Tennessee at Alabama | +8.5L20–37 | 60.5 | L20–37 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Tennessee at Kentucky | -7.5W56–34 | 55.5 | W56–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Tennessee vs Oklahoma | -3.0L27–33 | 55.5 | L27–33 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Tennessee vs New Mexico State | -41.5W42–9 | 59.5 | W42–9 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Tennessee at Florida | -3.5W31–11 | 57.5 | W31–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Tennessee vs Vanderbilt | -2.0L24–45 | 66.5 | L24–45 | O | N |
| Tue 12/30 | Tennessee vs Illinois | -3.0L28–30 | 62.5 | L28–30 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
East Tennessee State Edge
East Tennessee State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Tennessee Edge
Tennessee +51.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓