Sat, Nov 29 2025
·
Week 14
·
🏟 Neyland Stadium
Knoxville, TN
·
Turf
·
102,455 cap
Vanderbilt✈ 161 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Vanderbilt,
while Game Control favors Tennessee.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Vanderbilt wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Tennessee wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Tennessee -2.0
O/U 66.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Vanderbilt
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Vanderbilt 2025 Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Vanderbilt vs Charleston Southern | -37.5W45–3 | 49.5 | W45–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech | +2.5W44–20 | 46.5 | W44–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Vanderbilt at South Carolina | +3.0W31–7 | 48.5 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Vanderbilt vs Georgia State | -27.5W70–21 | 53.5 | W70–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Vanderbilt vs Utah State | -23.5W55–35 | 57.5 | W55–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Vanderbilt at Alabama | +13.5L14–30 | 58.5 | L14–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/18 | Vanderbilt vs LSU | -1.5W31–24 | 48.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Vanderbilt vs Missouri | -3.0W17–10 | 52.5 | W17–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Vanderbilt at Texas | +3.5L31–34 | 48.5 | L31–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Vanderbilt vs Auburn | -6.0W45–38 | 46.5 | W45–38 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | Vanderbilt vs Kentucky | -7.0W45–17 | 53.5 | W45–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Vanderbilt at Tennessee | +2.0W45–24 | 66.5 | W45–24 | O | Y |
| Wed 12/31 | Vanderbilt vs Iowa | -3.0L27–34 | 47.5 | L27–34 | O | N |
Tennessee 2025 Schedule
Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Tennessee vs Syracuse | -13.5W45–26 | 53.5 | W45–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Tennessee vs East Tennessee State | -39.5W72–17 | 58.5 | W72–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Tennessee vs Georgia | +3.5L41–44 | 50.5 | L41–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Tennessee vs UAB | -39.5W56–24 | 69.5 | W56–24 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Tennessee at Mississippi State | -7.5W41–34 | 63.5 | W41–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Tennessee vs Arkansas | -10.0W34–31 | 68.5 | W34–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Tennessee at Alabama | +8.5L20–37 | 60.5 | L20–37 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Tennessee at Kentucky | -7.5W56–34 | 55.5 | W56–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Tennessee vs Oklahoma | -3.0L27–33 | 55.5 | L27–33 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Tennessee vs New Mexico State | -41.5W42–9 | 59.5 | W42–9 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Tennessee at Florida | -3.5W31–11 | 57.5 | W31–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Tennessee vs Vanderbilt | -2.0L24–45 | 66.5 | L24–45 | O | N |
| Tue 12/30 | Tennessee vs Illinois | -3.0L28–30 | 62.5 | L28–30 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Vanderbilt
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Vanderbilt Edge
Vanderbilt +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Tennessee Edge
Tennessee +13.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Vanderbilt
1 — 4 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Vanderbilt
30.3 — 46.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Vanderbilt won by 21
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Vanderbilt
Clark Lea #1
16–33 (31%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Tim Beck
Yr 2
#1
DC
Steve Gregory
Yr 1
#1
Tennessee
Josh Heupel #1
37–14 (73%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Joey Halzle
Yr 3
#1
DC
Tim Banks
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓