Texas A&M at Texas Week 14 College Football Matchup Texas A&M at Texas Matchup - Week 14
Fri, Nov 28 2025 · Week 14 · 🏟 Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium Austin, TX · Turf · 100,119 cap
Texas A&M✈ 85 miSame TZ
17 27
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas A&M
30
Texas
26
P&R Line Texas A&M -4
P&R Total O/U 56
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas A&M -2.5 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
Texas A&M has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas A&M entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Texas A&M wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Texas A&M wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas A&M -2.5
O/U 54.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas A&M · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Texas 2nd straight Home Game
Texas A&M 2025 Schedule
Texas A&M's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Texas A&M vs UTSA-21.5W42–2456.5W42–24ON
Sat 9/6Texas A&M vs Utah State-34.5W44–2257.5W44–22ON
Sat 9/13Texas A&M at Notre Dame+7.5W41–4048.5W41–40OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Texas A&M vs Auburn-6.5W16–1051.5W16–10UN
Sat 10/4Texas A&M vs Mississippi State-17.5W31–957.5W31–9UY
Sat 10/11Texas A&M vs Florida-7.0W34–1747.5W34–17OY
Sat 10/18Texas A&M at Arkansas-7.5W45–4257.5W45–42ON
Sat 10/25Texas A&M at LSU-1.5W49–2550.5W49–25OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Texas A&M at Missouri-7.0W38–1748.5W38–17OY
Sat 11/15Texas A&M vs South Carolina-16.5W31–3049.5W31–30ON
Sat 11/22Texas A&M vs Samford-54.5W48–059.5W48–0UN
Fri 11/28Texas A&M at Texas-2.5L17–2754.5L17–27UN
Sat 12/20Texas A&M vs Miami-3.0L3–1048.5L3–10UN
Texas 2025 Schedule
Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Texas at Ohio State+1.5L7–1446.5L7–14UN
Sat 9/6Texas vs San José State-37.0W38–752.5W38–7UN
Sat 9/13Texas vs UTEP-39.5W27–1052.5W27–10UN
Sat 9/20Texas vs Sam Houston-39.5W55–051.5W55–0OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Texas at Florida-4.5L21–2942.5L21–29ON
Sat 10/11Texas vs Oklahoma-2.5W23–644.5W23–6UY
Sat 10/18Texas at Kentucky-12.5W16–1345.5W16–13UN
Sat 10/25Texas at Mississippi State-8.5W45–3848.5W45–38ON
Sat 11/1Texas vs Vanderbilt-3.5W34–3148.5W34–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Texas at Georgia+3.5L10–3550.5L10–35UN
Sat 11/22Texas vs Arkansas-10.5W52–3757.5W52–37OY
Fri 11/28Texas vs Texas A&M+2.5W27–1754.5W27–17UY
Wed 12/31Texas vs Michigan-7.0W41–2750.0W41–27OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Texas A&M PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas A&M
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas A&M
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas A&M
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas A&M #29
+0.346
Texas #66
+0.304
Texas A&M Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas A&M #26
+0.587
Texas #50
+0.390
Texas A&M Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas A&M #4
0.214
Texas #24
0.179
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas A&M Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas A&M #33
+7.907
Texas #88
+7.430
Texas A&M Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas A&M #28
+0.855
Texas #96
+0.746
Texas A&M Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas A&M #9
67.5
Texas #20
68.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas A&M Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas A&M
14.3
Texas
27.2
Offense Rating
Texas A&M
22.5
Texas
29.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas A&M
8.1
Texas
2.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas A&M Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas A&M #25
1.50
Texas #35
1.46
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas A&M #17
0.40
Texas #29
0.64
Texas A&M +0.05
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas A&M Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas A&M #1
69.1
Texas #1
53.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas A&M #10
18.2
Texas #41
32.8
Texas A&M +15.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Texas
43.9 — 22.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Texas won by 10
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas A&M with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas A&M
Mike Elko #1
8–4 (67%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Collin Klein Yr 2 #1
DC Jay Bateman Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas
Steve Sarkisian #1
36–16 (69%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Kyle Flood Yr 3 #1
DC Pete Kwiatkowski Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself