Matchup Prediction
Texas
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Texas entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Texas wins
Strong
Game Control
75.9%
Texas wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Texas -4.5
O/U 42.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Texas
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Texas 2025 Schedule
Texas's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Texas at Ohio State | +1.5L7–14 | 46.5 | L7–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Texas vs San José State | -37.0W38–7 | 52.5 | W38–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Texas vs UTEP | -39.5W27–10 | 52.5 | W27–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Texas vs Sam Houston | -39.5W55–0 | 51.5 | W55–0 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Texas at Florida | -4.5L21–29 | 42.5 | L21–29 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Texas vs Oklahoma | -2.5W23–6 | 44.5 | W23–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Texas at Kentucky | -12.5W16–13 | 45.5 | W16–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Texas at Mississippi State | -8.5W45–38 | 48.5 | W45–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Texas vs Vanderbilt | -3.5W34–31 | 48.5 | W34–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Texas at Georgia | +3.5L10–35 | 50.5 | L10–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Texas vs Arkansas | -10.5W52–37 | 57.5 | W52–37 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/28 | Texas vs Texas A&M | +2.5W27–17 | 54.5 | W27–17 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/31 | Texas vs Michigan | -7.0W41–27 | 50.0 | W41–27 | O | Y |
Florida 2025 Schedule
Florida's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Florida vs Long Island University | -46.5W55–0 | 56.5 | W55–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Florida vs South Florida | -18.5L16–18 | 58.0 | L16–18 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Florida at LSU | +5.5L10–20 | 47.5 | L10–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Florida at Miami | +8.5L7–26 | 51.5 | L7–26 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Florida vs Texas | +4.5W29–21 | 42.5 | W29–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Florida at Texas A&M | +7.0L17–34 | 47.5 | L17–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Florida vs Mississippi State | -9.5W23–21 | 50.5 | W23–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Florida vs Georgia | +7.0L20–24 | 50.5 | L20–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Florida at Kentucky | -4.5L7–38 | 44.5 | L7–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Florida at Ole Miss | +10.5L24–34 | 53.5 | L24–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Florida vs Tennessee | +3.5L11–31 | 57.5 | L11–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Florida vs Florida State | +1.5W40–21 | 48.5 | W40–21 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Texas Edge
Texas +2.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Texas Edge
Texas +22.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Florida
89.8 — 5.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Florida won by 8
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Texas with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Texas
Steve Sarkisian #1
36–16 (69%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Kyle Flood
Yr 3
#1
DC
Pete Kwiatkowski
Yr 2
#1
Florida
Billy Napier #1
18–19 (49%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Rob Sale
Yr 3
#1
DC
Ron Roberts
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓