Matchup Prediction
Tennessee
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Tennessee entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Tennessee wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Tennessee wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Georgia -8.5
O/U 47.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Tennessee
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Tennessee 2024 Schedule
Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Tennessee vs Chattanooga | -38.5W69–3 | 56.5 | W69–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Tennessee vs NC State | -10.0W51–10 | 60.5 | W51–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Tennessee vs Kent State | -49.5W71–0 | 61.5 | W71–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Tennessee at Oklahoma | -6.0W25–15 | 57.0 | W25–15 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Tennessee at Arkansas | -14.0L14–19 | 57.5 | L14–19 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Tennessee vs Florida | -13.5W23–17 | 54.5 | W23–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Tennessee vs Alabama | +3.5W24–17 | 57.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Tennessee vs Kentucky | -17.5W28–18 | 45.5 | W28–18 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Tennessee vs Mississippi State | -26.5W33–14 | 61.5 | W33–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Tennessee at Georgia | +8.5L17–31 | 47.0 | L17–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Tennessee vs UTEP | -41.5W56–0 | 54.0 | W56–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Tennessee at Vanderbilt | -9.5W36–23 | 45.5 | W36–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/21 | Tennessee at Ohio State | +7.5L17–42 | 47.0 | L17–42 | O | N |
Georgia 2024 Schedule
Georgia's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Georgia vs Clemson | -10.5W34–3 | 49.0 | W34–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Georgia vs Tennessee Tech | -54.5W48–3 | 62.5 | W48–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Georgia at Kentucky | -24.0W13–12 | 45.0 | W13–12 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Georgia at Alabama | -2.0L34–41 | 50.0 | L34–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Georgia vs Auburn | -21.0W31–13 | 50.0 | W31–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Georgia vs Mississippi State | -34.0W41–31 | 53.5 | W41–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Georgia at Texas | +4.0W30–15 | 57.0 | W30–15 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Georgia vs Florida | -14.5W34–20 | 52.5 | W34–20 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Georgia at Ole Miss | -1.5L10–28 | 54.5 | L10–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Georgia vs Tennessee | -8.5W31–17 | 47.0 | W31–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Georgia vs Massachusetts | -42.5W59–21 | 55.5 | W59–21 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Georgia vs Georgia Tech | -17.5W44–42 | 48.5 | W44–42 | O | N |
| Sat 12/7 | Georgia vs Texas | +2.5W22–19 | 50.5 | W22–19 | U | Y |
| Thu 1/2 | Georgia vs Notre Dame | +1.5L10–23 | 46.5 | L10–23 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Tennessee
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Tennessee Edge
Tennessee +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Tennessee Edge
Tennessee +5.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Georgia
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Georgia
39.1 — 34.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Georgia won by 14
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Tennessee. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Tennessee
Josh Heupel #1
27–12 (69%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Joey Halzle
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tim Banks
Yr 3
#1
Georgia
Kirby Smart #1
94–16 (86%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Mike Bobo
Yr 2
#1
DC
Glenn Schumann
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓