Matchup Prediction
Georgia
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Georgia entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Georgia wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Georgia wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Georgia -14.5
O/U 52.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Georgia
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Florida 2024 Schedule
Florida's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Florida vs Miami | +2.5L17–41 | 54.5 | L17–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Florida vs Samford | -38.5W45–7 | 55.5 | W45–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Florida vs Texas A&M | +4.5L20–33 | 47.0 | L20–33 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Florida at Mississippi State | -6.5W45–28 | 58.0 | W45–28 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Florida vs UCF | +1.0W24–13 | 62.0 | W24–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Florida at Tennessee | +13.5L17–23 | 54.5 | L17–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Florida vs Kentucky | +2.5W48–20 | 42.5 | W48–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Florida vs Georgia | +14.5L20–34 | 52.5 | L20–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Florida at Texas | +24.5L17–49 | 48.5 | L17–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Florida vs LSU | +3.0W27–16 | 57.0 | W27–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Florida vs Ole Miss | +13.0W24–17 | 57.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Florida at Florida State | -17.5W31–11 | 45.5 | W31–11 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/20 | Florida vs Tulane | -10.0W33–8 | 50.5 | W33–8 | U | Y |
Georgia 2024 Schedule
Georgia's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Georgia vs Clemson | -10.5W34–3 | 49.0 | W34–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Georgia vs Tennessee Tech | -54.5W48–3 | 62.5 | W48–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Georgia at Kentucky | -24.0W13–12 | 45.0 | W13–12 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Georgia at Alabama | -2.0L34–41 | 50.0 | L34–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Georgia vs Auburn | -21.0W31–13 | 50.0 | W31–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Georgia vs Mississippi State | -34.0W41–31 | 53.5 | W41–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Georgia at Texas | +4.0W30–15 | 57.0 | W30–15 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Georgia vs Florida | -14.5W34–20 | 52.5 | W34–20 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Georgia at Ole Miss | -1.5L10–28 | 54.5 | L10–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Georgia vs Tennessee | -8.5W31–17 | 47.0 | W31–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Georgia vs Massachusetts | -42.5W59–21 | 55.5 | W59–21 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Georgia vs Georgia Tech | -17.5W44–42 | 48.5 | W44–42 | O | N |
| Sat 12/7 | Georgia vs Texas | +2.5W22–19 | 50.5 | W22–19 | U | Y |
| Thu 1/2 | Georgia vs Notre Dame | +1.5L10–23 | 46.5 | L10–23 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia Edge
Georgia +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia Edge
Georgia +9.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Georgia
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Florida
34.3 — 41.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Georgia won by 14
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Georgia. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Florida
Billy Napier #1
11–14 (44%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Rob Sale
Yr 3
#1
DC
Austin Armstrong
Yr 2
#1
Georgia
Kirby Smart #1
94–16 (86%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Mike Bobo
Yr 2
#1
DC
Glenn Schumann
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓