Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Florida wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Florida -38.5
O/U 55.5
ESPN Bet
Samford 2024 Schedule
Samford's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/7 | Samford at Florida | +38.5L7–45 | 55.5 | L7–45 | U | Y |
Florida 2024 Schedule
Florida's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Florida vs Miami | +2.5L17–41 | 54.5 | L17–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Florida vs Samford | -38.5W45–7 | 55.5 | W45–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Florida vs Texas A&M | +4.5L20–33 | 47.0 | L20–33 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Florida at Mississippi State | -6.5W45–28 | 58.0 | W45–28 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Florida vs UCF | +1.0W24–13 | 62.0 | W24–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Florida at Tennessee | +13.5L17–23 | 54.5 | L17–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Florida vs Kentucky | +2.5W48–20 | 42.5 | W48–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Florida vs Georgia | +14.5L20–34 | 52.5 | L20–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Florida at Texas | +24.5L17–49 | 48.5 | L17–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Florida vs LSU | +3.0W27–16 | 57.0 | W27–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Florida vs Ole Miss | +13.0W24–17 | 57.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Florida at Florida State | -17.5W31–11 | 45.5 | W31–11 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/20 | Florida vs Tulane | -10.0W33–8 | 50.5 | W33–8 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Samford Edge
Samford +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida Edge
Florida +32.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓