Western Kentucky at Old Dominion Week 1 College Football Matchup Western Kentucky at Old Dominion Matchup - Week 1
Mon, Dec 18 2023 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Jerry Richardson Stadium Charlotte, NC · Turf · 15,314 cap
Western Kentucky✈ 339 mi+1 hr TZ Old Dominion✈ 270 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
38 35
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Western Kentucky
30
Old Dominion
22
P&R Line Western Kentucky -7.5
P&R Total O/U 52
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Old Dominion -4.0 · O/U 49.0
Matchup Prediction
Western Kentucky has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Western Kentucky entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Western Kentucky wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Western Kentucky wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Old Dominion -4.0
O/U 49.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Western Kentucky · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Old Dominion 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Western Kentucky 2nd straight Road Game
Western Kentucky 2023 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Western Kentucky vs South Florida-13.5W41–2471.5W41–24UY
Sat 9/9Western Kentucky vs Houston Christian-41.5W52–2264.5W52–22ON
Sat 9/16Western Kentucky at Ohio State+29.5L10–6365.0L10–63ON
Sat 9/23Western Kentucky at Troy+3.5L24–2757.0L24–27UY
Thu 9/28Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee-6.5W31–1061.0W31–10UY
Thu 10/5Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech-6.0W35–2859.0W35–28OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/17Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State-7.5L17–2060.5L17–20UN
Tue 10/24Western Kentucky vs Liberty+4.0L29–4261.5L29–42ON
Sat 11/4Western Kentucky at UTEP-9.5W21–1354.5W21–13UN
Sat 11/11Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State-4.5L29–3855.5L29–38ON
Sat 11/18Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston-12.5W28–2352.0W28–23UN
Sat 11/25Western Kentucky at Florida International-11.5W41–2854.0W41–28OY
Mon 12/18Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion+4.0W38–3549.0W38–35OY
Old Dominion 2023 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Old Dominion at Virginia Tech+16.0L17–3648.0L17–36ON
Sat 9/9Old Dominion vs Louisiana+6.0W38–3151.0W38–31OY
Sat 9/16Old Dominion vs Wake Forest+13.5L24–2760.0L24–27UY
Sat 9/23Old Dominion vs East Texas A&M-18.5
Sat 9/30Old Dominion at Marshall+14.5L35–4147.0L35–41OY
Sat 10/7Old Dominion at Southern Miss+3.0W17–1356.5W17–13UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Old Dominion vs App State+6.0W28–2156.0W28–21UY
Sat 10/28Old Dominion at James Madison+19.5L27–3048.0L27–30OY
Sat 11/4Old Dominion vs Coastal Carolina+1.0L24–2851.0L24–28ON
Sat 11/11Old Dominion at Liberty+13.5L10–3858.5L10–38UN
Sat 11/18Old Dominion at Georgia Southern+4.5W20–1761.5W20–17UY
Sat 11/25Old Dominion vs Georgia State-2.0W25–2449.5W25–24UN
Mon 12/18Old Dominion vs Western Kentucky-4.0L35–3849.0L35–38ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Western Kentucky PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Western Kentucky
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Western Kentucky #47
+0.351
Old Dominion #102
+0.327
Western Kentucky Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #42
+0.654
Old Dominion #112
+0.419
Western Kentucky Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #114
0.143
Old Dominion #56
0.167
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Old Dominion Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #6
+8.444
Old Dominion #117
+7.145
Western Kentucky Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Western Kentucky #92
+0.841
Old Dominion #109
+0.825
Western Kentucky Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Western Kentucky #102
71.8
Old Dominion #80
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Old Dominion Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Old Dominion Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Western Kentucky
-5.5
Old Dominion
0.3
Offense Rating
Western Kentucky
11.9
Old Dominion
14.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Western Kentucky
17.3
Old Dominion
14.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Western Kentucky Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Western Kentucky #100
0.82
Old Dominion #77
0.64
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Kentucky #77
0.91
Old Dominion #23
0.82
Western Kentucky +0.18
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Western Kentucky Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Western Kentucky #1
54.4
Old Dominion #1
34.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Kentucky #43
28.5
Old Dominion #69
42.2
Western Kentucky +19.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Old Dominion
81.8 — 5.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Western Kentucky won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Western Kentucky with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
34–22 (61%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Drew Hollingshead Yr 1 #1
DC Tyson Summers Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
10–18 (36%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Kevin Decker Yr 1 #1
DC Blake Seiler Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself