Old Dominion at Virginia Tech Week 1 College Football Matchup Old Dominion at Virginia Tech Matchup - Week 1
Sun, Sep 3 2023 · Week 1 · 🏟 Lane Stadium Blacksburg, VA · Turf · 66,233 cap
Old Dominion✈ 227 miSame TZ
17 36
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Old Dominion
18
Virginia Tech
32
P&R Line Virginia Tech -14.5
P&R Total O/U 50
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Virginia Tech -16 · O/U 48.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Virginia Tech -16
O/U 48.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Virginia Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Old Dominion 2023 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Old Dominion at Virginia Tech+16.0L17–3648.0L17–36ON
Sat 9/9Old Dominion vs Louisiana+6.0W38–3151.0W38–31OY
Sat 9/16Old Dominion vs Wake Forest+13.5L24–2760.0L24–27UY
Sat 9/23Old Dominion vs East Texas A&M-18.5
Sat 9/30Old Dominion at Marshall+14.5L35–4147.0L35–41OY
Sat 10/7Old Dominion at Southern Miss+3.0W17–1356.5W17–13UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Old Dominion vs App State+6.0W28–2156.0W28–21UY
Sat 10/28Old Dominion at James Madison+19.5L27–3048.0L27–30OY
Sat 11/4Old Dominion vs Coastal Carolina+1.0L24–2851.0L24–28ON
Sat 11/11Old Dominion at Liberty+13.5L10–3858.5L10–38UN
Sat 11/18Old Dominion at Georgia Southern+4.5W20–1761.5W20–17UY
Sat 11/25Old Dominion vs Georgia State-2.0W25–2449.5W25–24UN
Mon 12/18Old Dominion vs Western Kentucky-4.0L35–3849.0L35–38ON
Virginia Tech 2023 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion-16.0W36–1748.0W36–17OY
Sat 9/9Virginia Tech vs Purdue-1.5L17–2449.0L17–24UN
Sat 9/16Virginia Tech at Rutgers+6.5L16–3537.5L16–35ON
Sat 9/23Virginia Tech at Marshall+5.5L17–2441.5L17–24UN
Sat 9/30Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh+3.0W38–2140.0W38–21OY
Sat 10/7Virginia Tech at Florida State+23.5L17–3952.5L17–39OY
Sat 10/14Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest-1.5W30–1348.5W30–13UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/26Virginia Tech vs Syracuse-2.5W38–1047.5W38–10OY
Sat 11/4Virginia Tech at Louisville+9.5L3–3448.5L3–34UN
Sat 11/11Virginia Tech at Boston College-2.5W48–2248.5W48–22OY
Sat 11/18Virginia Tech vs NC State-2.5L28–3540.5L28–35ON
Sat 11/25Virginia Tech at Virginia-2.5W55–1752.5W55–17OY
Wed 12/27Virginia Tech vs Tulane-13.5W41–2043.5W41–20OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Virginia Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Virginia Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Virginia Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Virginia Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Old Dominion #102
+0.287
Virginia Tech #59
+0.335
Virginia Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Old Dominion #112
+0.348
Virginia Tech #70
+0.590
Virginia Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Old Dominion #56
0.167
Virginia Tech #47
0.171
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Virginia Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Old Dominion #117
+7.636
Virginia Tech #30
+7.814
Virginia Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Old Dominion #109
+0.760
Virginia Tech #55
+0.872
Virginia Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Old Dominion #80
70.9
Virginia Tech #33
69.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Virginia Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Virginia Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Old Dominion
0.3
Virginia Tech
5.9
Offense Rating
Old Dominion
14.4
Virginia Tech
18.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Old Dominion
14.2
Virginia Tech
12.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Old Dominion Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Old Dominion #77
0.00
Virginia Tech #13
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Old Dominion #23
0.00
Virginia Tech #68
0.00
Old Dominion +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Old Dominion Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Old Dominion #1
0.0
Virginia Tech #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Old Dominion #69
0.0
Virginia Tech #77
0.0
Old Dominion +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Virginia Tech
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Virginia Tech
72.4 — 10.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Virginia Tech won by 19
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Virginia Tech, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
10–18 (36%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Kevin Decker Yr 1 #1
DC Blake Seiler Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Virginia Tech
Brent Pry #1
4–10 (29%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Tyler Bowen Yr 2 #1
DC Chris Marve Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself