Sat, Sep 2 2023
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Bowling Green, KY
·
Turf
·
22,113 cap
South Florida✈ 663 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Western Kentucky -13.5
O/U 71.5
Caesars Sportsbook (Colorado)
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
South Florida 2023 Schedule
South Florida's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | South Florida at Western Kentucky | +13.5L24–41 | 71.5 | L24–41 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | South Florida vs Florida A&M | -20.0W38–24 | 63.0 | W38–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | South Florida vs Alabama | +34.0L3–17 | 61.0 | L3–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | South Florida vs Rice | +2.5W42–29 | 56.5 | W42–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | South Florida at Navy | +4.0W44–30 | 54.0 | W44–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | South Florida at UAB | -3.5L35–56 | 68.5 | L35–56 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | South Florida vs Florida Atlantic | -3.0L14–56 | 61.0 | L14–56 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | South Florida at UConn | +1.0W24–21 | 57.0 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | South Florida at Memphis | +13.5L50–59 | 68.5 | L50–59 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | South Florida vs Temple | -7.5W27–23 | 70.5 | W27–23 | U | N |
| Fri 11/17 | South Florida at UTSA | +14.5L21–49 | 65.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | South Florida vs Charlotte | -7.5W48–14 | 56.5 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/21 | South Florida vs Syracuse | +3.0W45–0 | 56.0 | W45–0 | U | Y |
Western Kentucky 2023 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Western Kentucky vs South Florida | -13.5W41–24 | 71.5 | W41–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Western Kentucky vs Houston Christian | -41.5W52–22 | 64.5 | W52–22 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Western Kentucky at Ohio State | +29.5L10–63 | 65.0 | L10–63 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Western Kentucky at Troy | +3.5L24–27 | 57.0 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| Thu 9/28 | Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee | -6.5W31–10 | 61.0 | W31–10 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/5 | Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech | -6.0W35–28 | 59.0 | W35–28 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/17 | Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State | -7.5L17–20 | 60.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Tue 10/24 | Western Kentucky vs Liberty | +4.0L29–42 | 61.5 | L29–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Western Kentucky at UTEP | -9.5W21–13 | 54.5 | W21–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State | -4.5L29–38 | 55.5 | L29–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston | -12.5W28–23 | 52.0 | W28–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Western Kentucky at Florida International | -11.5W41–28 | 54.0 | W41–28 | O | Y |
| Mon 12/18 | Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion | +4.0W38–35 | 49.0 | W38–35 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Florida Edge
South Florida +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
South Florida Edge
South Florida +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Western Kentucky
44.3 — 34.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Western Kentucky won by 17
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Western Kentucky, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
South Florida
Alex Golesh #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Joel Gordon
Yr 1
#1
DC
Todd Orlando
Yr 1
#1
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
34–22 (61%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Drew Hollingshead
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tyson Summers
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓