Western Kentucky at Florida International Week 13 College Football Matchup Western Kentucky at Florida International Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 25 2023 · Week 13 · 🏟 FIU Stadium Miami, FL · Turf · 23,500 cap
Western Kentucky✈ 854 mi+1 hr TZ
41 28
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Western Kentucky
33
Florida International
22
P&R Line Western Kentucky -11
P&R Total O/U 54.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Western Kentucky -11.5 · O/U 54.0
Matchup Prediction
Western Kentucky has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Western Kentucky entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Western Kentucky wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Western Kentucky wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Western Kentucky -11.5
O/U 54.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Western Kentucky · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Western Kentucky 2023 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Western Kentucky vs South Florida-13.5W41–2471.5W41–24UY
Sat 9/9Western Kentucky vs Houston Christian-41.5W52–2264.5W52–22ON
Sat 9/16Western Kentucky at Ohio State+29.5L10–6365.0L10–63ON
Sat 9/23Western Kentucky at Troy+3.5L24–2757.0L24–27UY
Thu 9/28Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee-6.5W31–1061.0W31–10UY
Thu 10/5Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech-6.0W35–2859.0W35–28OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/17Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State-7.5L17–2060.5L17–20UN
Tue 10/24Western Kentucky vs Liberty+4.0L29–4261.5L29–42ON
Sat 11/4Western Kentucky at UTEP-9.5W21–1354.5W21–13UN
Sat 11/11Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State-4.5L29–3855.5L29–38ON
Sat 11/18Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston-12.5W28–2352.0W28–23UN
Sat 11/25Western Kentucky at Florida International-11.5W41–2854.0W41–28OY
Mon 12/18Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion+4.0W38–3549.0W38–35OY
Florida International 2023 Schedule
Florida International's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26Florida International at Louisiana Tech+12.0L17–2257.5L17–22UY
Sat 9/2Florida International vs Maine-15.0W14–1246.0W14–12UN
Sat 9/9Florida International vs North Texas+10.5W46–3951.5W46–39OY
Sat 9/16Florida International at UConn+7.0W24–1743.0W24–17UY
Sat 9/23Florida International vs Liberty+10.0L6–3854.0L6–38UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/4Florida International at New Mexico State+6.5L17–3449.5L17–34ON
Wed 10/11Florida International vs UTEP+1.5L14–2744.0L14–27UN
Wed 10/18Florida International at Sam Houston+6.0W33–2742.0W33–27OY
Wed 10/25Florida International vs Jacksonville State+9.0L16–4148.0L16–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/11Florida International at Middle Tennessee+10.5L6–4050.5L6–40UN
Sat 11/18Florida International at Arkansas+27.5L20–4449.5L20–44OY
Sat 11/25Florida International vs Western Kentucky+11.5L28–4154.0L28–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Western Kentucky PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Western Kentucky
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Western Kentucky #47
+0.423
Florida International #117
+0.286
Western Kentucky Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #42
+0.703
Florida International #102
+0.435
Western Kentucky Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #114
0.143
Florida International #129
0.118
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Western Kentucky Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #6
+8.294
Florida International #113
+7.212
Western Kentucky Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Western Kentucky #92
+0.804
Florida International #120
+0.808
Florida International Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Western Kentucky #102
71.8
Florida International #130
74.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Western Kentucky Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Florida International Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Western Kentucky
-5.5
Florida International
-4.1
Offense Rating
Western Kentucky
11.9
Florida International
11.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Western Kentucky
17.3
Florida International
15.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Western Kentucky Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Western Kentucky #100
0.80
Florida International #124
0.30
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Kentucky #77
1.00
Florida International #107
1.70
Western Kentucky +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Western Kentucky Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Western Kentucky #1
51.1
Florida International #1
28.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Kentucky #43
30.7
Florida International #118
52.6
Western Kentucky +22.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Western Kentucky with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
34–22 (61%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Drew Hollingshead Yr 1 #1
DC Tyson Summers Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Florida International
Mike MacIntyre #1
7–9 (44%) · Yr 2 at school
OC David Yost Yr 2 #1
DC Jovan Dewitt Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself