Sat, Oct 7 2023
·
Week 6
·
🏟 M. M. Roberts Stadium
Hattiesburg, MS
·
Turf
·
36,000 cap
Old Dominion✈ 837 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Southern Miss,
while Game Control favors Old Dominion.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Southern Miss wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Old Dominion wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Southern Mississippi -3
O/U 56.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Old Dominion
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Old Dominion 2023 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Old Dominion at Virginia Tech | +16.0L17–36 | 48.0 | L17–36 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Old Dominion vs Louisiana | +6.0W38–31 | 51.0 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Old Dominion vs Wake Forest | +13.5L24–27 | 60.0 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Old Dominion vs East Texas A&M | -18.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/30 | Old Dominion at Marshall | +14.5L35–41 | 47.0 | L35–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Old Dominion at Southern Miss | +3.0W17–13 | 56.5 | W17–13 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Old Dominion vs App State | +6.0W28–21 | 56.0 | W28–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Old Dominion at James Madison | +19.5L27–30 | 48.0 | L27–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Old Dominion vs Coastal Carolina | +1.0L24–28 | 51.0 | L24–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Old Dominion at Liberty | +13.5L10–38 | 58.5 | L10–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Old Dominion at Georgia Southern | +4.5W20–17 | 61.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Old Dominion vs Georgia State | -2.0W25–24 | 49.5 | W25–24 | U | N |
| Mon 12/18 | Old Dominion vs Western Kentucky | -4.0L35–38 | 49.0 | L35–38 | O | N |
Southern Miss 2023 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Southern Miss vs Alcorn State | -24.0W40–14 | 47.5 | W40–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Southern Miss at Florida State | +31.0L13–66 | 54.0 | L13–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Southern Miss vs Tulane | +8.0L3–21 | 47.5 | L3–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Southern Miss at Arkansas State | -7.0L37–44 | 46.5 | L37–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Southern Miss vs Texas State | +6.5L36–50 | 60.0 | L36–50 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Southern Miss vs Old Dominion | -3.0L13–17 | 56.5 | L13–17 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/17 | Southern Miss at South Alabama | +18.5L3–55 | 51.0 | L3–55 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Southern Miss at App State | +16.0L38–48 | 55.5 | L38–48 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Southern Miss vs UL Monroe | -3.0W24–7 | 56.0 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/9 | Southern Miss at Louisiana | +8.5W34–31 | 51.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Southern Miss at Mississippi State | +18.5L20–41 | 47.5 | L20–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Southern Miss vs Troy | +16.5L17–35 | 48.5 | L17–35 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Old Dominion
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Southern Miss Edge
Southern Miss +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Old Dominion Edge
Old Dominion +15.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
10–18 (36%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Kevin Decker
Yr 1
#1
DC
Blake Seiler
Yr 3
#1
Southern Miss
Will Hall #1
11–17 (39%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Sam Gregg
Yr 2
#1
DC
Dan O'Brien
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓